Don’t let Mugabe win

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Just as Africa is booming and becoming more important than ever to the United States, a tragedy is unfolding in the heart of the continent. After 33 years in power, Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe is on track for another term in power. Even if he is declared the winner of the July 31 poll, this will in no way reflect the will of the Zimbabwean people. It will be a sham that the United States and its allies must not unwittingly legitimize.

American officials and international observers have spent the past month urging a free and fair election in Zimbabwe. But it is already far too late. The seeds of a fraudulent election were sown long ago. After losing the first round in 2008, the 89-year-old Mugabe unleashed a torrent of violence against the opposition. In a perverse twist, the election results actually showed the armed militias, operating under the direction of the military, precisely where to attack.

The ruling party’s intimidation machine has had five long years to ensure another Mugabe victory. Police have raided civic groups, radios have been banned, and party thugs have gone house-to-house. The pieces are also in place to rig the numbers if necessary. The upcoming election is in no way an expression of democracy; it is instead political theater being stage-managed by Mugabe and his junta.

Meanwhile, the U.S. government has been asleep at the wheel, haggling over minor election details and impotently calling for everyone to behave. Worse, the United States is sending worrying signals of future indifference. Zimbabwe has the long-term potential to be an economic driver for southern Africa and a partner for the United States and its private sector. But we risk ceding that potential to others while also visibly failing to stand by our democratic ideals.

America needs a new approach to Zimbabwe. First, the United States must not unwittingly endorse a flawed election result. Even if Election Day passes peaceably, the outcome was never in doubt, which means it was never a real election in the first place. As Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE) has rightly stated, “the absence of pre-election violence is not the same as a free and fair election.”

Second, the United States must not prematurely normalize relations. Engagement and flexibility does not mean appeasement. Until the signs of true political reform are clear, current U.S. travel and financial sanctions against those responsible for violence and political repression must be kept firmly in place. The United States should also resist any premature efforts to allow new lending to Zimbabwe by international financial institutions. The 2001 Zimbabwe Democracy and Economic Recovery Act conditioned détente on restoration of the rule of law, freedom of speech and association, and an end to violence and intimidation. This bipartisan law (co-sponsored by Sens. Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Bill Frist, Jesse Helms, and Russ Feingold) remains appropriate.

Third, the United States must get proactive – this is no time for the State Department to sit on its hands and merely wait for Mugabe to die before pushing for change. The time to influence Zimbabwe’s future is now. The country no longer wants to remain a pariah state. Nuanced policymaking can leverage the regime’s desperation to come in from the cold. Now is the time to actively seek dialogue with future leaders, plan for quick-reacting forms of recovery assistance, and find creative ways to aid democratic forces.

The July 31 election may not bring Zimbabwe the change it needs, but America’s reaction afterwards is an opportunity to recalibrate. If U.S. officials are seen as quietly accepting a deeply flawed election, it will damage America’s reputation at just the time the United States needs to be standing on principle by helping the country turn away from the hatred and fear of the past and toward a new Zimbabwe based on openness, prosperity, and freedom.

Real change is coming to Zimbabwe one day — and America should be prepared.

Todd Moss is vice president and senior fellow at the Center for Global Development. He served as deputy assistant secretary for Africa in the State Department from 2007-08.