Pollster: Cruz would hurt Republican House hopefuls most
A leading Republican pollster privately told Speaker Paul Ryan and his leadership team Sen. Ted Cruz would be the biggest drag on House Republicans should he win his party’s nomination, according to multiple sources who attended a small meeting of senior GOP lawmakers earlier this month.
During the gathering in Annapolis, Maryland, Dave Sackett of the Tarrance Group reviewed a recent poll he conducted for the National Republican Congressional Committee that described internal party data, including how voters feel about Donald Trump’s calls to temporarily bar Muslims from entering the U.S. and to deport undocumented immigrants.
After the presentation to the group of elected Republican leaders, Ryan (R-Wis.) asked Sackett which of the Republican presidential hopefuls would be most detrimental to GOP House candidates on the ballot this year. Sackett replied that Cruz would have the biggest negative effect, citing the Texas senator’s starkly ideological positions, according to six sources who were in the meeting. Sackett told the group that the public’s perception of Cruz could shift if he becomes the nominee.
The presentation did not include projections of how many seats House Republicans might win or lose. And Sackett told the group — which included Ryan, Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy of California and Majority Whip Steve Scalise of Louisiana — that Republicans could gain seats and retain their majorities, no matter who wins the nomination.
Republicans have their biggest House majority in 80 years and have a virtual lock on the chamber. But Democrats are expected to pick up some seats in November; they typically perform better in higher-turnout presidential elections. The GOP nominee could mean the difference between losing a handful of seats and perhaps many more.
Rick Tyler, communications director for Cruz’s presidential campaign, dismissed Sackett’s analysis “as the same old tired thinking that we always get.”
Tyler described that view as having “ to nominate someone in the moderate middle in order to win [the White House]. That’s the same old thing we hear every four years, and it just doesn’t stand up anymore.”
Ryan, McCarthy and Scalise have not endorsed in the race, and the speaker did not indicate he was looking to wade into the contest or attempt to change the direction of the primary, according to sources present. Ryan’s office declined to comment, as did the NRCC and Sackett.
But the private comments indicate for the first time Ryan’s active interest in the presidential race and its potential bearing on his House majority. Senior Republican lawmakers such as NRCC Chairman Greg Walden of Oregon have publicly expressed concern that Trump could damage the House GOP’s electoral prospects should he become the nominee.
Sackett’s presentation confirmed those worries. His poll showed that a plurality of respondents — 48 percent to 40 percent — would be less likely to vote for a Republican congressional candidate or incumbent if Trump were the nominee. The business mogul and former reality TV star, who has been leading in most GOP polls for months, was the only candidate surveyed on that question, the sources said.
This Wednesday and Thursday, House and Senate Republicans will gather in Baltimore to discuss their agenda and planning for this year. But GOP lawmakers will also hear a presentation about their party’s standing and public perception. Sackett’s colleague Ed Goeas, also of the Tarrance Group, along with longtime GOP pollster David Winston and Christine Matthews of Burning Glass Consulting will discuss “what people will care about in 2016” with House and Senate Republicans, according to an agenda for the gathering.
More than a dozen House Republicans have endorsed Cruz, most notably Iowa conservative Rep. Steve King. None of Cruz’s Senate GOP colleagues have endorsed him.
Cruz and Trump are locked in a tight battle in Iowa, while Trump has a big lead in New Hampshire, according to the latest polls.