And that was before Tuesday’s devastating results, where Rubio sunk to single digits in Mississippi and Michigan, finishing last and losing so badly that he won no delegates in those two states. He was a distant third in Idaho at risk of getting no delegates there. After he came in third in Hawaii with 12 percent, he was a mere 2 for 24 in the campaign, and his wins came in the Republican hinterlands of Minnesota and Puerto Rico.

Hours before the polls closed, Rubio had tried to rally his supporters at Dolphin Aviation in Sarasota on Tuesday afternoon. But the airplane hangar was only half-full, with the campaign generously estimating as many as 1,000 had come. Four years earlier, that same venue had hosted 3,000 for Newt Gingrich, and Florida wasn’t his home state. And three months earlier, Trump drew upwards of 10,000 in the same city, filling an arena as thousands more overflowed into the streets.

“We have a lot of work to do in the next seven days,” Rubio told the crowd, ticking down the time to Florida’s March 15 primary.

It’s all too familiar a situation for the Republican elite, and for past Bush supporters who have swung to Rubio, who have long waited for Rubio to translate his many fleeting moments of success into tangible momentum.

“I’m obviously a Jonah,” veteran Tallahassee lobbyist John “Mac” Stipanovich laughed lamentingly, even before the breadth of Tuesday’s defeats in Mississippi and Michigan were apparent. “I’m a Marco supporter,” the former Bush backer said. “I’m not face down in the Kool-Aid.”

A new national NBC/Wall Street Journal poll Tuesday placed Rubio in dead last in the four-man race, trailing Trump, Ted Cruz and John Kasich. Rubio has fallen to the bottom of the political prediction markets, as well, barely ahead of Mitt Romney, who is not even a candidate.

Indeed, as he has faltered, Rubio is generating an emotion among supporters that no politician ever wants but that Bush endured for months: sympathy. The “poor Jeb” refrain that haunted Bush, from reporters and supporters alike, in his final weeks is suddenly sticking to “little Marco,” as Trump has mercilessly mocked the Florida senator.

“My hope is that he’ll make it,” said Dennis Cathcart, who brought his grandson to see Rubio in Sarasota on Tuesday. “But I fear he’s fallen too far behind to catch up.”

Cathcart backs Rubio but is worried others might abandon him for a winner. “We sort of feel like he’s not gonna make it and worry that people would rather vote for someone who could,” he said.

Howard Coshak, another Sarasota rally attendee, arrived clutching a Rubio bumper sticker to go along with the Rubio sticker and pin fastened to his shirt. He had considered not coming at all until his wife told him it might give a sagging Rubio a morale boost. “You’ve got to give him the psychological motivation that people are behind him,” she told him.

“It’s literally impossible for him to get the delegates,” Coshak said of Rubio. “I’m trying to be realistic.”

Rubio is making his final stand in Florida, a state whose 99 winner-take-all delegates he hopes can thrust him back into the 2016 political conversation. His advisers say Rubio will campaign in Florida every day through March 15, and he has promised to win here.

But Rubio has trailed in every public poll for months and on Sunday night, in an email alert to supporters, the campaign breathlessly broke the news of a new poll “shaking up the race.”

It showed Rubio losing.

“By just a few points,” the campaign wrote hopefully, “and closing fast!”

Rubio is getting an incredible assist on the Florida airwaves, with $10 million in negative attacks hitting Trump from various groups and Rubio’s own super PAC adding $5 million to its already substantial buy on late Tuesday — an incredible sum to spend in one week.

But Rubio’s rivals are also gunning for him. Trump held a press conference in Jupiter, Florida, on Tuesday and called Florida “my second home.” Trump has broken from his frugal tradition and invested more than $1 million in Florida ads. Ted Cruz, meanwhile, is coming to Rubio’s backyard on Wednesday, holding a rally in Miami as his super PAC prepares an anti-Rubio Florida ad assault. He will be in Orlando on Friday, doing a Fox News town hall, host Sean Hannity revealed Wednesday.

Rubio has still one major opportunity left to flip the momentum, at Thursday’s debate at the University of Miami.

“It has to happen here,” Rubio said Tuesday. “It has to happen now.”

Earlier in the week, the Rubio campaign moved swiftly to squash a report from CNN that there had been some discussion within the campaign of dropping out before Florida. Spokesman Alex Conant declared it “fiction” on air as he condemned the network.

But Stipanovich said the fact that the story caught fire was, in itself, telling. “Those kinds of rumors feed off the perceptions of weakness and the only way to fix that sort of thing is to demonstrate strength,” he said.

“If someone started a rumor that Trump or Cruz was dropping out before Wednesday, no one would believe it,” Stipanovich added.

Al Cardenas, an early Bush backer and former head of the Florida Republican Party, said there are certainly “good parallels” between the Bush and Rubio campaigns as they’ve struggled.

“The higher up you go in the expectations ladder, the more intensity of coverage it is when you’re not meeting those expectations,” Cardenas said. “That was the way it was with Jeb. it’s the way it is with Marco.”

The candidates have responded remarkably similar as they’ve struggled.

Bush spoke often about “grinding it out.” On Monday in Tampa, Rubio told reporters of his recent spate of poor performances, “We’ve just got to continue to fight through it.”

Bush said in New Hampshire that voters were “tired of the profanity, tired of the vulgarity” from Trump. Rubio said Monday of Trump, “You never know what he’s going to say except it’s probably going to be vulgar or profane.”

And, just as Bush did before him, Rubio has been complaining that Trump’s act is lavished with extra press coverage.

Rubio was visibly slumping Monday, as he batted away question after question from reporters about when he would withdraw from the race and if he would quit if he lost in Florida. He returned to Sarasota with more vigor for a rally Tuesday, where he was joined by his older brother, Mario.

“His spirit hasn’t changed,” Mario Rubio said in a brief interview. “Very positive.”

Also in the crowd was Joe Gruters, Trump’s Florida co-chairman, who mocked Rubio’s turnout in the same city where Trump drew thousands more last November. “Obviously an indication of where his campaign’s at,” Gruters said. “He’s in big trouble.” He noted Trump filled an arena in Orlando over the weekend, a showing that may rival many of Rubio’s events during his final week before the primary — combined.

Rubio had dismissed Trump’s crowd sizes the day before. “If crowd size was indicative of his support, he’d be blowing everyone away everywhere,” Rubio said. “I wouldn’t judge campaigns simply on crowd size, I just wouldn’t.”