Poll: Clinton, Trump in statistical tie, but Florida voters dislike both candidates
Florida voters still look ready to split their ticket by narrowly favoring Democrat Hillary Clinton for president and Republican Sen. Marco Rubio in his reelection campaign, according to a new poll released Monday.
The leads of both frontrunners in the Florida Chamber of Commerce pollare within its 4.9 point error margin: Rubio leads Democratic U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy, 46-42 percent, and Clinton is ahead of Republican Donald Trump, 43-41 percent, with Libertarian Gary Johnson pulling 8 percent.
The poll of likely voters also showed that a revamped medical-marijuana constitutional amendment proposal is favored to pass by 73-22 percent. A homestead tax break for disabled first responders is supported by 85-7 percent. And a utility-backed solar-power plan has 66 percent support with 16 percent opposing. It takes 60 percent of the vote to pass a constitutional amendment, making the solar-power plan the most vulnerable of the three issues.
In contrast, the two top-of-the-ticket races are too close to call. The major presidential candidates are particularly hamstrung by the percentages of Floridians who dislike them both: 41 percent have a favorable impression of Clinton and 55 percent an unfavorable view. Trump’s favorable-unfavorable numbers are about as bad: 39-53 percent.
“Floridians don’t like either candidate at the top of the ticket, therefore it’s important that both candidates work to connect with voters tonight when they will have the nation’s attention during the presidential debate,” Marian Johnson, the chamber’s director of political operations, said in a written statement. “Presidential debates offer candidates an opportunity to make solid gains and to improve their outcome at the ballot box. I believe Floridians will be watching the candidates closely to learn more about them, and to help determine which way they will vote.”
Clinton’s big advantage is with non-white voters. African-Americans support her 88-4 percent over Trump and Hispanics back her 53-30 percent. The numbers are the reverse for white voters, who support Trump 51-34 percent over Clinton. Whites are 66 percent of the poll and Hispanics and blacks each account for 13 percent of the survey.
A key to Rubio’s better standing relative to Trump: Hispanic voters. They support the bilingual senator 46-43 percent over Murphy, who still pulls outsized support from black voters. But whites are strongly in Rubio’s camp, backing him 53-35 percent.
Rubio also has a lead of 42-38 percent over Murphy with independents. Clinton leads Trump among independents 45-35 percent.
Florida hasn’t had a split-ticket result since the 2000 disputed presidential election, in which George W. Bush was declared the winner by 537 votes. However, had tens of thousands of voters in areas that favored Al Gore not cast spoiled ballots, the vice president would likely have won along with his fellow Democrat, Sen. Bill Nelson, according to analyses of voting patterns at the time.
The chamber poll of 617 likely voters was conducted for the chamber from Sept. 15-20, 2016, by Cherry Communications, which used live callers to survey respondents. POLITICO Florida writes standalone stories for political polls of the state that include sufficient demographic data and that use live callers and traditional polling methods.