What Trump win means for agriculture
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With help from Catherine Boudreau, Ian Kullgren, Jason Huffman and Jenny Hopkinson
WHAT TRUMP WIN MEANS FOR AGRICULTURE: Donald Trump’s resounding upset victory Tuesday night was fueled in part by strong support in rural America — and the New York City real estate mogul may not forget it soon. Trump, who doesn’t have a record on agriculture policy, has pledged to keep the farm bill together, go big on infrastructure, slash regulations and re-negotiate trade deals.
“We are going to end this war on the American farmer,” Trump said at Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst‘s annual “Roast and Ride” fundraiser, in Des Moines at the end of August. The speech was his first and only substantial foray into agriculture on the campaign trail. While campaigning,Trump didn’t talk a whole lot about farm policy, but he did far more rural stops and brought up hot button issues like Waters of the U.S. and ethanol more often than Clinton did.
“Family farms are the backbone of this country ... " Trump said at the time, veering often from the prepared speech he provided in advance to the press. “We are going to end the EPA intrusion into your family homes and into your family farms for no reason. What they are doing to you is a disgrace. We are going to get rid of a lot of those regulations that don’t mean anything except cost you a lot of money and a lot of time and, in many cases, you lose your farms over the regulations.”
This all may have seemed like lofty rhetoric in August, but after Tuesday night President-elect Trump is now looking at a Republican House and Senate, which makes slashing regulations very much possible.
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PROTECT RFS, KILL WOTUS: Everytime Trump has talked about agriculture, he’s railed against regulations. “We are going to protect the Renewable Fuel Standard, corn-based ethanol, eliminate job-killing regulations like the Waters of the United States rule, which is a disaster, and provide desperately needed tax relief,” he said at the Des Moines event. “President Obama lied to you about his support for the Renewable Fuel Standard and you can trust Hillary Clinton far less than you could even Obama.”
Trump has also pledged to lower the tax rate on family farms to 15 percent and stop the so-called “death tax.” He’s called for “a top-down review” of the Endangered Species Act so that it is “more transparent, uses the best science, incentivizes species conservation, protects private property rights, and no longer imposes needless and unwarranted costs on American landowners,” according to a response the campaign gave on an American Farm Bureau Federation questionnaire.
A Trump-Mike Pence administration intends to play an active role in crafting the 2018 farm bill, the campaign said in the Farm Bureau survey. And based on their relatively mainstream 70-member agriculture advisory council, they’re likely to stick to their support of safety net programs like crop insurance. One of Trump’s top advisors says he’s not interested in splitting the farm bill in two, as many Republicans have advocated.
“We’ve often talked about that, that the nutrition title needs to be part of the farm bill,” Sam Clovis, co-chair of the national Trump campaign, said last month at the Farm Foundation agricultural forum, in Washington. Clovis also said that the food stamp program doesn’t need cuts, and instead should rely on the improving economy to reduce the cost of the program.
TRUMP HAS DEEP BENCH FOR AG SECRETARY: There are several current and former farm state governors on the transition’s working short list for agriculture secretary, according to Arabella Advisors, a firm that advises top foundations and is closely tracking both transition efforts. Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback and Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad both are among the 70 top officials to serve on Trump’s agricultural advisory committee. Other names include former Nebraska Gov. Dave Heineman, former Georgia Gov. Sonny Perdue, former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, as well as Charles Herbster, a Republican donor and agribusiness leader, and Mike McCloskey, a major dairy executive in Indiana.
The c-word enters ag politics: The most controversial name on the current short list is Sid Miller, the current secretary of agriculture in Texas, who caused a firestorm just days ago after his campaign’s Twitter account referred to Clinton as a ‘c---.‘ Miller said it was a staffer mistake and apologized.
“In the world of potential Trump agriculture appointees I don’t know if his Twitter comments make him more or less likely to get a cabinet post,” said Eric Kessler, founder and senior managing director of Arabella.
Bruce Rastetter, a major Republican donor in Iowa, and Kip Tom, a farmer who ran for Congress in Indiana this year but was defeated in the primary, are also among those being considered, according to Arabella. Other top Republican insiders suggest Chuck Connor, president and CEO of the National Council of Farmer Cooperatives, Don Villwock, president of the Indiana Farm Bureau, and Ted McKinney, the current director of the Indiana Department of Agriculture in the Pence Administration, are also likely in the running.
Sub-cabinet: Arabella’s own tracking also has Connor as a consideration for the under secretary for national resources and environment and McKinney as chief of the natural resources conservation services.
SODA TAXES SWEEP OUT WEST: Four U.S. cities — San Francisco, Oakland and Albany, Calif., and Boulder, Colo. — passed ballot initiatives Tuesday night that will impose taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages, a huge loss for the beverage industry and a big win for health advocates and billionaires Michael Bloomberg and Laura and John Arnold. Tax proponents hope that their string of victories — including Philadelphia and Mexico — will propel soda taxes into the mainstream policy fray, a move that would open up the floodgates to similar taxes in other cities and states.
Jim Krieger, the founding executive director of Healthy Food America, called the votes “an historic turning point” and said his group has already heard from a dozen places considering action on sugary drinks in 2017.”
“It’s a clean sweep. It’s huge,” said Larry Tramutola, who ran the pro-tax effort in the Bay Area. “It’s a clear sign of what voters want … and it shows you the power of having people on the ground and how that can overcome millions in advertising.”
Pricey Bay Area gets pricier: Joe Arellano, a spokesman for the anti-tax efforts, issued a statement early Wednesday morning: “We respect the voters’ decisions. We remain concerned that any revenue raised will go to the general funds where the cities can spend it however they choose. Unfortunately, low-income and hardworking families are struggling in San Francisco, Oakland and Albany and already pay a disproportionate amount of their income on groceries. They will be hurt most by this regressive tax, as will small businesses. It’s already too expensive to live in the Bay Area and this tax will make it even harder.”
Pros can read more on the food and ag-related election results from yours truly, Jenny Hopkinson and Catherine Boudreau here.
BLUNT KNOCKS OUT KANDER: In one of the tightest races in the Senate, Republican incumbent Roy Blunt overcame a strong push by Democrat Jason Kander, Missouri’s 35-year-old secretary of state, to keep the seat he’s held since 2011. Blunt is a member of the Appropriations Committee’s agriculture panel, vice chairman of the Senate Republican Conference and a friend to the food and agriculture industries, garnering support for his reelection from the PACs of Bunge North America Inc., National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, the Food Marketing Institute, Growth Energy, General Mills, Tyson Foods, John Deere and Cargill. He raised nearly $9.9 million, while Kander’s total came in just under that at $9.8 million.
GRASSLEY, BENNET KEEP SEATS, TOO: The makeup of the 20-person Senate Agriculture Committee isn’t likely to change that much following Tuesday’s election. Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Michael Bennet (D-Colo.), the only two members of the panel who faced any real competition in their reelection bids, both won their races easily.
Grassley, who beat Democratic challenger Patty Judge, a former Iowa agriculture secretary, has been in the Senate since 1981 and recently has used his other position as chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee to scrutinize the wave of mergers among large agrochemical companies.
Bennet, who has served on the Agriculture Committee since taking office in 2009 when he was appointed by former Gov. Bill Ritter to fill the seat vacated by Salazar (who became Obama’s Interior secretary), held off Republican rival Darryl Glenn. This campaign cycle the incumbent raised $13.3 million, with nearly $480,000 of that from the agriculture, alcohol and food and beverage industries, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. Comparatively, Glenn raised $3.5 million.
FOUR HOUSE AG MEMBERS IN PERIL: Just as the House Agriculture Committee prepares to start work on another farm bill, it could be forced to replace up to four more of its 45 members as a result of Tuesday’s election. Reps. Brad Ashford (D-Neb.), Rick Nolan (D-Minn.) and Jeff Denham (R-Calif.) — who were earlier among three members of the panel deemed by the Cook Political Report to be in toss up races — were all leading or trailing by narrow margins as MA was being wrapped up this morning. Another member of the panel — Rep. Timothy Walz (D-Minn.) — was in a virtual dead heat early this morning with his Republican challenger.
LOTS OF ROOM AT TABLE FOR MARSHALL: The likely losses and the already planned departures of Reps. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Ariz.), Chris Gibson (R-N.Y.), Dan Benishek (R-Mich.) and Gwen Graham (D-Fla.) leave lots of room on the House Agriculture Committee for newly elected Kansas physician Roger Marshall. After defeating incumbent Tim Huelskamp in the Republican primary, Marshall rolled easily to victory on Tuesday over independent Alan LaPolice and Libertarian Kerry Burt.
An invite for Marshall would be a bitter pill for Huelskamp, who pestered Republican leadership to be put him back on the committee after he was kicked off it in 2012. Marshall also has expressed an interest in joining the panel.
But there are bound to be other openings, too. Indiana Republican Jackie Walorski, who chairs the Agriculture Committee’s nutrition panel, is reported to be interested in a seat on the more prestigious House Ways and Means Committee. Walorski beat her Democratic competitor Lynn Coleman handily Tuesday by a roughly 20 percent margin.
MEET THE MEMBERS: Pros can check out profiles of every newly elected member of Congress here, courtesy of the Campaign Pro team.
MASSACHUSETTS BANS ANIMAL CONFINEMENT: Back to the ballot initiatives … Voters in the Bay State on Tuesday overwhelmingly supported Question 3, which prohibits the sale of eggs, veal or pork from animals raised in confined spaces and can’t lie down, stand up, fully extend their limbs or turn around freely. While the law will only impact one poultry farm in Massachusetts, it also applies to businesses that knowingly sell products from animals raised that way, even if they are sourced from outside the state. The law takes effect in January 2022, making Massachusetts the second state to enact this type of policy after California voters approved Proposition 2 in 2008.
Passage of the measure is a win for animal welfare advocates like the Humane Society of the United States, which donated $2.4 million out of the $2.6 million raised for the pro-ballot campaign. Opposition to Question 3 was organized late in the game, raising $302,000 between mid-October and election day. Forrest Lucas, the oil industry executive from Indiana that was on Trump’s shortlist for Interior secretary, donated $195,000, while the National Pork Producers Council threw in $100,000, state campaign finance disclosures show.
OKLAHOMA SHOOTS DOWN RIGHT TO FARM PROPOSAL: In Oklahoma, voters overwhelmingly rejected Question 777, which would have established farming and ranching as constitutional rights. Under the measure, which the legislature placed on the ballot earlier this year, existing state and local laws regulating or restricting agricultural operations would have been vulnerable to lawsuits, and judges would have had to apply the same level of legal scrutiny as they do in cases involving freedom of speech and gun ownership. Opponents argued the bill was designed to block reasonable policies that protect public health and the environment, while supporters said it would allow free-market competition to guide practices and help farmers defend themselves against laws that harm the industry.
The campaign backing the ballot initiative raised $1.4 million, with the top donors being the Oklahoma Farm Bureau and its insurance arm that gave a combined $459,111. The Oklahoma Pork Council also donated nearly $279,000. The nonprofit organization Oklahoma Rising Inc. and the Humane Society of the United States gave the most money to the opposition -- $702,485 and $154,000 respectively.
CARBON TAX DEFEATED IN WASHINGTON: Another ballot initiative that went down in flames Tuesday night was Washington state’s Initiative 732, which would have imposed a carbon emission tax on the sale or use of certain fossil fuels and fossil-fuel generation, including power imports. The tax, which was opposed by Washington Farm Bureau, Washington Food Industry Association, Washington Association of Wheat Growers and Washington State Dairy Federation to name just a few, would have primarily impacted transportation fuel costs given that 71 percent of that state’s net electricity generation production comes from renewables, especially hydropower, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
The state’s tax would have begun at $15 per metric ton of carbon emissions in 2017, climbed to $25 in 2018 and increased by 3.5 percent annually, plus inflation, until it reaches $100 per metric ton. The tax would have increased at a slower rate for non-profit transportation providers and farmers. But designers of Initiative 732 have drawn criticism from some green and environmental justice groups for offsetting the carbon tax revenues with a cut of one percentage point in the state’s sales tax. The initiative also would have increased tax breaks for low-income families and reduced the business and occupation tax rate from 0.484 to 0.001 percent.
Opponents of the measure, in a press call last week, said they would prefer to see the revenues go toward green infrastructure projects, including those that would benefit low-income and minority communities. Proponents had viewed the carbon tax as a template for how other states could pass similar taxes.
MA’S INSTANT OATS:
— The Agriculture Department has stopped publishing the “Georgia Dock,” a weekly chicken price estimate upon which the charges for grocery stores are at least partly based, because it “could not be independently verified,” The Washington Post reports.
— DTN analyst Darin Newsome offered predictions Tuesday on what will be in USDA’s next Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates reports today “if the world survives Election Day and USDA actually releases its latest numbers.”
— Should carrageenan be allowed on foods labeled as organic? Civil Eats previews the fight to take place at the National Organic Standards Board meeting, in St. Louis, Nov. 16-18.
— Seaweed from a farm in Oahu, Hawaii, is being blamed for a Salmonella outbreak that has sickened more than two dozen people, Food Safety News reports.
THAT’S ALL FOR MA! See you again soon! In the meantime, drop your host and the rest of the team a line: [email protected] and @ceboudreau; [email protected] and @jennyhops; [email protected] and @hbottemiller; [email protected] and @IanKullgren; [email protected] and @mjkorade; and [email protected] and @jsonhuffman. You can also follow @POLITICOPro and @Morning_Ag on Twitter.
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