The question carries a unique fascination because Sarah Palin’s answer will determine the shape of the 2012 presidential race.

If she decides not to run for president, one of a half dozen presentable, plausible Republican men will likely lead his party into a traditional referendum on the incumbent, Barack Obama, on the nation’s economy, and its prospects.

If she runs, it will be all about her. Palin’s presence would add an electric charge to the staid field of Republican candidates, and her instinct for the gut would likely turn the 2012 election into a riveting cultural drama.

Palin’s own allies say they have no idea of her intentions. “Anyone who claims they know whether she’s running or not is lying,” said one person in Palin’s orbit. “Her thinking is totally opaque to people outside her marriage. She and Todd may know, may not have decided yet, but no one outside that family really knows.”

So they, and the rest of us, are closely reading the tea leaves, looking for clues. Here is what they suggest, for and against a Palin candidacy.

BRISTOL PALIN’S ENGAGEMENT

She’ll run:

Sarah Palin’s family appears to be closing an open, embarrassing wound. The substance of Levi Johnston’s criticism of her — his unflattering, insider portrayal of her household – and the mere fact of the unwed father of her grandson maintaining a high, trashy media profile helped raise doubts about Palin’s family values.

“It is intimidating and scary just to think about what [Sarah Palin’s] reaction is going to be. Hopefully she will jump on board,” Bristol Palin told US Weekly.

She won’t run:

As Palin works to be taken seriously, her 19 yearo-old daughter gives an exclusive interview to USWeekly, relegating the family back to tabloid – and soap opera status.

HER CURRENT MEDIA STRATEGY

She’ll run:

Palin is the first politician to fully master the new media, both social and ideological, communicating directly with her supporters via Facebook and Twitter even as she confines her interviews to Fox News (which employs her) and other sympathetic conservative outlets. She’s a needle in the vein of the Republican base, and those direct channels would finance a primary and make her intensely competitive for the nomination.

And if she’s the nominee, her instinctive new media savvy could allow her to replicate and even surpass Barack Obama’s 2008 success in raising money and communicating on the Internet.

She won’t run:

Palin has created a brilliant platform – but she’s sacrificed any ability to build coalitions, the key to national politics. The same authenticity that compels her supporters repels those in the middle. Polls show that Palin’s standing has steadily declined among the public at large and even among Republicans, even as the intensity of her support shows no signs of flagging.

What’s more, she’s created a new kind of national power, one that doesn’t require elected office – and might even be damaged by a campaign.

“You could make an argument that Sarah Palin’s motivated followers, monster email and social networking footprint and her values-match to a large percentage of Americans makes her a more powerful political force outside office than in for the 2012 cycle,” said Republican consultant Rick Wilson.

HER ORGANIZATION

She’ll run:

Palin’s financial disclosure filing on Sunday prompted POLITICO’s Ken Vogel to write that with a direct mail campaign bringing in $866,000 in three months and an expanded political staff - including such basic aides as a scheduler - Palin is for the first time “supported by a political operation befitting someone considering a presidential run.”

Palin’s policy pronouncements – dispensed, like most of her output, via Facebook – have also grown more professional since she left the Alaska governor’s office last summer, with heavily-footnoted tracts morphing into presidential-quality statements drafted with the help of consultants, former McCain campaign aides, and Republican foreign policy hands Randy Scheunemann and Michael Goldfarb. Palin has a trio of Republican campaign hands - former McCain campaign advance men Jason Recher and Doug McMarlin and her treasurer, Tim Crawford, to run her day-to-day operation - along with the assistance of Rebecca Mansour, who helped create a vibrant online grassroots presence out of the website Conservatives4Palin.

She won’t run:

Palin didn’t exactly invent direct mail, Facebook, or Twitter, and she is arguably doing the very minimum imaginable for a politician of her popularity and stature. “Palin gets another round of breathless 2012 buzz for doing things she is supposed to do: campaign for candidates, raise money, send out mail,” snarked CNN’s Peter Hamby Monday.

And indeed, Palin’s organization still falls far short of that of the best-funded presumed Republican candidate, Mitt Romney. Though various of the Palin aides mentioned above will answer some questions from the press, reporters remain unsure of whom to contact. Supporters complain that they, too, don’t know whom to call. And Palin’s aides are scattered across the country, from Washington to Ohio to California, with all the key decisions made by Palin and her husband Todd in Wasilla.

HER ENDORSEMENTS

She’ll run:

Palin has made a broad, and sometimes savvy, round of endorsements. She gets particular credit for diving in to support South Carolina gubernatorial candidate Nikki Haley in a moment of dire political need, and helping her win a primary that’s made her the party’s brightest new star. She has backed a list of congressional candidate, a mixture of anti-establishment tea party favorites like Washington state senate candidate Clint Didier and old allies like her running mate John McCain and California’s Carly Fiorina, often with an eye toward supporting likeminded women and reclaiming her faded Alaska brand as a reform Republican.

These candidates could provide a crucial network of support in 2012, and Haley – should she become governor of South Carolina – will be a pivotal player in an early state.

She won’t run:

Palin’s two savviest endorsements, of Haley and of Iowa gubernatorial nominee Terry Branstad, are widely thought to have been arranged by the Republican Governors Association, whose executive director, Nick Ayers, is a Palin confidant from her time as a member of the group. But Ayers’ boss, Gov. Haley Barbour of Mississippi, has his own presidential ambitions. And Palin hasn’t done so well on her own, with as many endorsements exposing weakness as showing strength (like congressional candidates Doug Hoffman, who lost a special election in New York in November, and Tim Burns, who failed to take the Pennsylvania seat once held by John Murtha) and others showing comical disorganization (like her worthless, late tweet in support of Angela McGlowan, who lost a Mississippi congressional primary last month with a third of the vote).

THE RISKS

She’ll run:

“I don’t see how she has anything to lose,” says Republican consultant Ed Rollins, who pointed to Palin’s strong relationship with her base and good prospects in Iowa and South Carolina, sites of a key GOP caucus and primary. By this logic, a campaign would only raise her already sky-high profile. At worst, she’d lose and be more or less back where she started: Kingmaker, media personality, best-selling author.

She won’t run:

There is a downside - just ask Rudy Giuliani, or Fred Thompson, whose 2008 washouts transformed them from iconic Republican figures to the butts of late night jokes. The defeats were also very expensive. Presidential campaigns are full-time jobs these days, and require shedding consulting contracts and media gigs, and exposing potential conflicts to the light of day. Giuliani’s campaign, in particular, appears to have badly damaged a consulting business built from his national stature.

Other 2012 prospects like Newt Gingrich and Mike Huckabee have profited, personally and professionally, from the buzz – without showing any sign of actually shedding business interests or Fox contracts to become full time candidates.

“Losing hurts her brand,” said Democratic new media consultant Kombiz Lavasany. “A perpetual draft movement is better.”