TOP LINE

Local party activists and national Republicans aren’t on the same page in a handful of critical House races that could determine control of the chamber.

Ahead of competitive primaries, some local and state party organizations have endorsed candidates who are running against those backed by national Republicans, including Speaker Mike Johnson. But these splits don’t mean it’s over for the Republicans on the other side of the endorsement.

It’s just the latest example of the diminishing power of state parties in battleground states. These operations have struggled in recent years, on both financial and leadership fronts. Not having that local backing is not a death knell for these campaigns: State parties, which consist of some of the most engaged activists, aren’t always indicative of who will show up in a primary, let alone the broader electorate. And without strong finances, the endorsements often do little to boost these insurgent candidates challenging the national party favorites.

In CO-08, a district held by Democratic Rep. Yadira Caraveo that President Joe Biden would have won by around 5 points in 2020, state Rep. Gabe Evans is not looking for the endorsement of the Colorado Republican Party, despite having Johnson’s backing and being touted by the NRCC. (The NRCC, which does not formally endorse in open-seat primaries, did not comment for this story.) This is the first year that the state GOP is issuing endorsements in contested primaries, and Evans told Score that he doesn’t think that “seeking the endorsement of a state party that's trying to pick winners and losers within the Republican primary is the best way to show that we're trying to bring unity and those big tent principles.”

In order to get the state party’s endorsement, candidates had to fill out a questionnaire that, in part, asked if they support a federal abortion ban, if the U.S. should continue sending aid to Ukraine and if they “denounce” Americans for Prosperity, which spent against former President Donald Trump in the GOP primary. (AFP has endorsed Evans.) It’s unclear if the state party will ultimately endorse in the primary, and Evans touted support from district delegates as a sign of his local support.

“Unfortunately, when the party is busy sending surveys to gauge the purity of candidates, that's not actually doing the behind the scenes logistics and infrastructure that's necessary to be able to go win some of these battleground seats, so campaigns end up having to do that work,” Evans said. “It'd be great if we could all get on the same page. … But if they're not going to do it, fortunately, I'm pretty well equipped to be able to build an organization that's going to go out and do that anyway, and go flip this seat.”

A similar dynamic is at play in Nebraska, where Rep. Don Bacon, one of a handful of Republicans representing a district that Biden won in 2020, is facing a primary challenge on Tuesday from businessperson Dan Frei, who’s running to his right. None of Nebraska’s Republican incumbents sought an endorsement from the state party, which came under new leadership in 2022. The party endorsed challengers in many of those races, including Bacon’s.

But that doesn’t necessarily mean that Bacon is in trouble this week. Ryan Horn — a Nebraska-based GOP strategist who has worked for Bacon — said that the state party does not “have any real support behind them other than this small activist group.”

“Those activities that parties have historically played, that can have a tremendous impact in an ability to win a campaign,” Horn said. “The fact that the Democratic Party is at least functioning tactically like that, and the Republican Party is not is a little bit of a problem. … There's just been a lot of silliness and a lot of vitriol coming from them, and I am skeptical that people want to work with him if they did change their mind.”

This played out at the local level in MN-02, where Republicans are hoping to unseat Democratic Rep. Angie Craig. GOP district delegates endorsed Tayler Rahm, who is running against Joe Teirab. Teirab previously said he would drop out if he didn’t earn that endorsement, but he reversed course and is still running. National Republicans have backed Teirab, who has strong fundraising: He has significantly outraised Rahm so far, and has a war chest more than 10 times as big.

Still, the local party isn’t going away. Joseph Ditto, the chair of the MN-02 Republican Party, said in an email that the party will “fight tooth and nail to defend our endorsement" and that “people are really upset with Teirab for breaking his pledge” to drop out. Ditto told Score that he was initially unaware of Teirab’s national backing, but confirmed that the NRCC will stay neutral until after the primary and said that he would try to get in touch with Johnson to explain the situation on the ground.

Happy Monday. Reach me at [email protected] and @madfernandez616.

Days until the North Carolina runoffs and Maryland, Nebraska and West Virginia primaries: 1

Days until the Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky and Oregon primaries: 8

Days until the Texas runoffs: 15

Days until the Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota primaries: 22

Days until the Maine, Nevada, North Dakota and South Carolina primaries: 29

Days until the Oklahoma and Virginia primaries: 36

Days until the Colorado, New York and Utah primaries: 43

Days until the Republican National Convention: 65

Days until the Democratic National Convention: 98

Days until the 2024 election: 176

CAMPAIGN INTEL

2024 WATCH — Republican Vermont Gov. Phil Scott is running for reelection this year, he announced over the weekend. He’s seeking a fifth term and will be the heavy favorite; there are no term limits for governor in Vermont.

… Eleven Democrats filed to run for late Rep. Donald Payne Jr.’s seat in deep-blue NJ-10. “The Democratic field includes three sitting elected officials from the 10th district, a political director for Rep. Andy Kim’s Senate campaign, a top state economic development official, a former Payne staffer, and five others, making for a chaotic multi-way election where the winner might prevail with only a small percentage of the vote,” the New Jersey Globe’s Joey Fox writes.

ABORTION ON THE BALLOT — Local organizers and national advocates for abortion-rights initiatives “fear Democratic candidates, in promoting abortion-rights referendums that may boost their electoral prospects, could inadvertently doom the initiatives,” POLITICO’s Megan Messerly and Alice Miranda Ollstein write. “It’s a particular concern in key presidential and Senate battlegrounds like Arizona, Montana and Nevada where ballot measure campaigns to codify abortion rights need more than just Democratic voters to succeed. … Nearly all [initiative campaigns] are sticking to nonpartisan messaging calling for freedom from government control and personal autonomy and are refraining from commenting on candidates.”

ENDORSEMENT CORNER — Trump endorsed Mendham Borough Mayor Christine Serrano Glassner for the GOP nomination in the race for New Jersey Senate. She’s facing a primary challenge, including from Curtis Bashaw, a hotelier who previously criticized the former president.

… The Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party endorsed Rep. Ilhan Omar’s reelection bid, the Star Tribune’s Ryan Faircloth reports. A handful of Democrats are running against Omar, a member of the progressive “Squad,” this summer. That includes Don Samuels, a former Minneapolis city councilmember who challenged Omar in 2022.

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Presidential Big Board

HALEY MARY — As former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley rakes in votes in primaries long after she dropped out of the presidential race, Biden’s “top campaign officials continue to court major Haley donors and possible anti-Trump GOP endorsers while honing their messages for bringing in Haley voters,” POLITICO’s Adam Wren, Elena Schneider and Natalie Allison write. “Trump, meanwhile, has made no such moves to bring Haley voters back into the GOP tent. Two months after she dropped out of the primary, Trump has yet to contact Haley to ask for her support.”

… Speaking of Haley: “Nikki Haley is not under consideration for the V.P. slot, but I wish her well!” Trump wrote on Truth Social over the weekend, after Axios reported that Haley was in the VP mix.

THE CASH DASH

WATCHDOG REPORT — There is “probable cause to believe” that Rep. Troy Nehls (R-Texas) used campaign funds for personal use, according to a report from the Hill’s nonpartisan ethics watchdog. Nehls denied the allegations.

TALES FROM THE CRYPTO — Stand with Crypto, a pro-crypto super PAC backed by digital asset exchange Coinbase, launched last week, becoming the latest crypto-friendly outside group to wade into elections, POLITICO’s Jasper Goodman reports. The group endorsed Democrats Shomari Figures in AL-02 and Eddy Morales in OR-03; Republican Troy Downing MT-02; and GOP Senate hopefuls Rep. Jim Banks of Indiana and Gov. Jim Justice of West Virginia.

POLL POSITION

MT-02 — Downing, the state auditor, has a lead in the GOP primary to succeed Republican Rep. Matt Rosendale, according to a Cygnal poll conducted for Elect Principled Veterans Fund, a super PAC supporting Downing. Downing has 28 percent; former Rep. Denny Rehberg has 12 percent; former DEA agent Stacy Zinn has 8 percent; state Superintendent of Public Instruction Elsie Arntzen has 5 percent; and four other candidates have under 4 percent (410 likely Republican primary voters, May 8-9, MoE +/- 4.83 percentage points).

AS SEEN ON TV

WV-Sen — Democrat Glenn Elliott, the mayor of Wheeling who was endorsed by outgoing Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin, is running his first ad, outlining his experience and priorities. He’s running against veteran Zach Shrewsbury and former coal executive Don Blankenship.

… Blankenship is running a whole host of ads, including one about China and another about illicit drugs and Ukraine.

UT-Sen — Republican Brad Wilson is running an ad warning about electing a “phony conservative.”

WV-Gov — Republican Chris Miller continues his onslaught against primary opponent Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, attacking his ties to New Jersey and background as a drug company lobbyist. He’s also going after former state Del. Moore Capito, tying him to Biden.

… Black Bear PAC, which is supporting Morrisey, is going after Republican Secretary of State Mac Warner for not supporting Trump.

IA-03 — Democrat Lanon Baccam, who’s looking to challenge Republican Rep. Zach Nunn, is running a spot featuring Christie Vilsack, Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack’s wife.

MI-08 — Republican Mary Draves is running her first ad for this open swing district, saying it’s “hard to recognize” Michigan. The ad in part highlights pro-Palestinian protesters and Democratic Michigan Rep. Rashida Tlaib.

OK-04 — American Action Network, the nonprofit aligned with House GOP leadership, is boosting Republican Rep. Tom Cole, who faces a primary challenge next month.

STAFFING UP

— Paul Manafort “stepped aside” from his volunteer role advising Republicans on the party’s nominating convention “after questions arose about his involvement in the convention’s planning process,” The New York Times’ Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan write.

— First Vice Chairman Brian K. Pritchard was kicked out of his leadership role in the Georgia Republican Party “after a judge ruled he voted illegally nine times while serving probation for a felony check forgery sentence,” The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Mark Niesse writes.

CODA: QUOTE OF THE DAY — “If I had started a little bit earlier, I would have been able to have six Bob Fergusons.” — Glen Morgan, a conservative Washington state activist who recruited two candidates named Bob Ferguson to run against Democratic state Attorney General Bob Ferguson for governor.