2020 elections

O’Rourke tells Texas TV station he’s running

Beto O'Rourke

Beto O’Rourke told a Texas TV station Wednesday that he’s running for president, and he’s set to make a formal announcement Thursday morning.

“I’m really proud of what El Paso did and what El Paso represents,” O’Rourke said in the text to KTSM in El Paso, Texas, according to the news station. “It’s a big part of why I’m running. This city is the best example of this country at its best.”

The station reported that O’Rourke will formally announce his candidacy on Thursday.

O’Rourke’s intention to enter the race has become increasingly clear in recent days and weeks. He has begun quietly reaching out to state Democrats in advance of his first trip to Iowa as a presumptive presidential candidate, personally calling high-profile figures in Iowa, including former Gov. Tom Vilsack, according to two sources familiar with his calls.

On Wednesday, top O’Rourke supporters were alerted to prepare to text or email their own donor networks links to contribute to the campaign once he announces his 2020 bid, a source familiar with the effort told POLITICO.

O’Rourke is expected to arrive in Iowa on Thursday, where he will be assisted by Norm Sterzenbach, a former executive director of the Iowa Democratic Party who recently began organizing O’Rourke’s trip.

Intermediaries for the former Texas congressman are arranging visits to a factory and a coffee shop in Burlington, Iowa, according to a source familiar with his plans. O’Rourke was also seeking to visit Cedar Rapids to record the popular Political Party Live podcast — which recently hosted Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) — and was expected to make an appearance in Muscatine. He’s also trying to schedule meetings with Latino Democratic leaders in the first-in-the-nation caucus state, two Democrats familiar with his plans told POLITICO.

In addition to a previously announced rally in Waterloo on Saturday for Eric Giddens, a Democratic state Senate candidate, O’Rourke will attend a house party that night with John Murphy, the Dubuque County recorder. Sterzenbach was involved in setting up both of those events.

“Norm’s a very, very experienced operative in the state. He’s top talent,” said Dave Nagle, a former congressman and state Democratic party chairman. “It’s a star hire, and it indicates that the candidate may be very, very serious about our state.”

For O’Rourke, Sterzenbach represents a significant acquisition of talent. Starting far later than most other top-tier Democrats, O’Rourke was widely considered to be at a disadvantage in staffing and organization in early primary states.

Sterzenbach is sometimes referred to as “Mr. Caucus” in Iowa for his deep knowledge of caucus math and mechanics. He most recently worked as a consultant to the state party as it prepares to make some of the most significant changes to the caucuses in decades.

“I don’t really know Beto O’Rourke, I do know that he got a hold of a really top-notch manager for Iowa,” said former Iowa Lt. Gov. Patty Judge. “If you pulled out a top four or five political people in the state of Iowa, Norm would be among them … Caucuses are not primaries, they’re not the same. You have to organize a little differently. Norm has been through this many, many times. He knows how to do it.”

Paul Tewes, who ran Obama’s 2008 operation in the state, is also helping O’Rourke. But the assistance Sterzenbach is providing has raised some eyebrows in Iowa.

“It caused just a little bit of consternation because he’s been part of … drafting the reform,” Nagle said, referring to Sterzenbach’s recent role in consulting for the party as it made changes to 2020 caucus operations. “To see him go over to the other side to a candidate is a little disappointing.”

O’Rourke is appearing in Iowa amid alarming poll numbers for him there. A Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom poll released Saturday saw O’Rourke’s poll numbers drop to 5 percent in the state, down from 11 percent in December. Even more concerning for O’Rourke was his favorability rating.

In December, 28 percent of likely Democratic caucus-goers rated O’Rourke very favorably, with another 25 percent rating him mostly favorably. This month, his “very favorable” rating shrunk to 19 percent.

“The intensity, in terms of people liking him, has been cut not in half, but cut by more than a handful of percentage points,” said J. Ann Selzer, the Iowa pollster who conducted the survey. “That’s a moment where I say, ‘There’s something going on here.’”

The reasons for O’Rourke’s waning popularity are not clear. But Selzer suggested it is the possible result of O’Rourke lying relatively low since his near-miss Texas Senate race. In addition, she said, referring to his highly publicized, solo road trip throughout the Southwest in January, “The news that he has been making is that he’s put himself in a truck or a van or an SUV or something and is wandering in the wilderness. The news wasn’t of him looking presidential.”

While O’Rourke has been vacillating on a run, Nagle said Iowans “do not like indecisiveness,” and he said other candidates have “made a good impression” in a primary contest that is already drawing a steady stream of 2020 candidate visits to the state.

“Iowa right now is like flavor of the weekend,” he said. “The crowds they’re getting, you’re reacting and you think, ‘Jeez, that person’s really got something going.’ And then you turn around and you think, ‘Wait a minute, this one looks pretty good, too.’ … I’ve been doing caucuses since ‘68. I’ve never seen this much intensity.”

Giddens’ March 19 special election campaign, in Iowa’s historically Democratic Black Hawk County, has drawn interest from numerous presidential contenders who view it as an opportunity to demonstrate their commitment to Iowa Democrats. But it has also been appealing to national Democrats because of controversy surrounding the timing of the election, scheduled by Iowa’s Republican governor to be held during spring break at the University of Northern Iowa, which is located in the district.

Sens. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Cory Booker of New Jersey are expected to campaign for Giddens this weekend. Harris, former Rep. John Delaney of Maryland and Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.), are among the presidential candidates or prospective candidates who have already given assistance.

“Anything that draws attention to a special election, it helps build enthusiasm and raise awareness of the election, which helps generate turnout,” said Jacob Becklund, director of the Iowa Senate Majority Fund.