Barbara Comstock

Barbara Comstock needed a push.

Back in 2009, Comstock, a former aide to Virginia Rep. Frank Wolf, still hadn’t decided whether to run for a state House seat in Northern Virginia, but “wires got crossed,” and then-Virginia House Speaker William Howell announced “to the crowded room that I was running for office,” Comstock remembered.

“If I hadn’t been pushed into the pool, I might’ve done what women often do — you go through the list of qualifications, and if we don’t have all 10, then we don’t do it,” Comstock said.

That dive into the political deep end kicked off a congressional career that’s put Comstock atop the list of vulnerable Republicans in 2018, as her Northern Virginia district, which backed Hillary Clinton in 2016, continues to trend bluer in the Trump era. In 2017, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Ralph Northam won the district by a 20-point margin, and Democrats flipped seven Republican-held state delegate seats that overlap with Comstock’s House seat.

Eight Democrats have already raised a combined $1.2 million last quarter to take her on in November. But Republicans believe that Comstock, a prodigious fundraiser and battle-tested incumbent, can weather a chaotic midterm cycle by relying on her brand.

“She’s already spent millions on her behalf, in an expensive media market, to build an excellent brand,” said Andrea Bozek, a Republican consultant. “That’s hard to deflate.”

In Congress, Comstock has tried to carve out a national platform in the wake of the #MeToo movement, spearheading legislation on sexual harassment policy for congressional offices. Comstock called it a “bipartisan” effort that demands “zero tolerance at all levels.” She’s now turning her attention to sexual harassment in other industries, “the non-famous people,” she said.

Comstock also made headlines in February, pushing back on President Trump’s threats for a government shutdown over immigration. “We don’t need a shutdown over this,” Comstock said, a nod to the thousands of federal workers in her district. The Virginia congresswoman has carefully charted the distance between herself and the president, urging Trump to drop out of the 2016 presidential race after the “Access Hollywood” tape surfaced.

But Comstock’s careful navigation around Trump may not be enough to satisfy the “Resistance” bubbling up in her district. Democrats are banking on suburban women to turn against Comstock and to deny her the “crossover vote she got in 2016,” said Josh Ulibarri, a Democratic strategist.

And Comstock’s support from the National Rifle Association — ranking amongst the top recipients of NRA campaign contributions — may also complicate her reelection bid, as “reducing gun violence is a top issue” for voters in the district, said Lindsey Davis Stover, one of the Democrats vying to take on Comstock.

Democrats, however, must first struggle free from a contested, crowded primary. All eight candidates bring money and impressive résumés, including two former Obama administration officials, a state senator, a former federal prosecutor and an Iraq War veteran. A drawn-out primary will drain these candidates of resources, while Comstock sits on more than $1.8 million in the bank.

“That’s the one way she pulls it out, if we come out of the primary a divided party, but she’s in trouble, a lot of trouble,” Ulibarri added.

Comstock, for her part, knows she’s in a top-targeted race, so she’s “always [running] like I’m 10 points behind,” but she feels she’s “really in the same situation I was in [in] 2016,” and we all know how that turned out. — Elena Schneider

Headshot by Rod Lamkey Jr. for POLITICO. Story photo by Chris Kleponis/Pool/Getty Images.