Immigration

Incoming Mexican president faces immediate border test

Andrés Manuel López Obrador

The new Mexican government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador will press the United States to invest least $20 billion in Central America and, reportedly, faster asylum processing in exchange for allowing migrants to remain in Mexico while they seek refugee status in the U.S.

Seeking those concessions will be a first test for López Obrador, who is being sworn in on Saturday and who ran on a platform that included a promise to defend migrants against President Donald Trump. But many officials say the new president is ill-prepared to confront a long-term crisis created by thousands of Central American refugees gathering along Mexico’s northern border.

“They’re so overwhelmed by this transition that they haven’t been able to deal with this effectively,” said a former official who’s been in touch with López Obrador’s team. “Frankly, they’re not in a position to do it, based on their lack of knowledge and experience.”

The Trump administration is wasting no time pressing its case that Mexico should absorb the costs and hardships of housing migrants seeking asylum in the United States. López Obrador is scheduled to have lunch with Vice President Mike Pence on Saturday, where the two are expected to discuss the situation at the border, a senior White House official said.

Marcelo Ebrard, López Obrador’s pick for foreign minister, will meet with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Sunday in Washington. And on Monday, Mexican officials are expected to meet with Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen, whose agency is charged with policing the border.

U.S. money for Central America would be an acknowledgment of America’s interventionist history that many Mexicans believe engendered discord in the region. The faster asylum processing, which the López Obrador administration is seeking, according to TheWall Street Journal, could mitigate some of the potential costs to Mexico of housing migrants.

But even well-tuned analysts are wondering whether López Obrador’s administration is equipped to handle the larger, long-term problem of how to deal with thousands of refugees traveling for weeks on end as they wind their way to the United States.

“It’s not clear that they’ve looked at the full impact of what [keeping migrants in Mexico] would mean for Mexico border cities,” said Maureen Meyer, director for Mexico and migrant rights at the Washington Office on Latin America. “There needs to be a more cohesive approach from inside the administration.”

Until today, López Obrador has lacked the authority to officially negotiate with Trump officials on behalf of Mexico. That fueled confusion among López Obrador’s resource-strapped transition team and other Mexican officials about the status of an agreement to require Central American asylum seekers to remain in Mexico while their applications to the U.S. are pending. Transition officials gave conflicting statements over the past week about whether a deal existed at all.

It remains to be seen if López Obrador, a leftist former Mexico City mayor, will be able to reach a compromise with Trump that stays true to his promises to pursue humanitarian policies and appease the U.S. administration at the same time.

As one of his first actions, he will have to decide whether to continue sending federal police to the border. After last weekend’s unrest, the Mexican government, as one of the last acts of the previous administration, deployed 500 officers to a sports complex in Tijuana where more than 5,000 migrants were staying.

Hours before López Obrador’s inauguration, Mexican authorities began moving migrants from crowded gathering points to government-run centers farther away from the border. While hundreds had boarded buses to the new location by Friday, others stayed put, suspicious of a government plot to deport them.

Mexican federal officials are under pressure from the local government, which this month declared a state of emergency as migrant caravans poured into the city.

López Obrador has long pledged to discourage migration to the U.S. through economic development projects that create jobs and improve security in Central America and southern Mexico. Such a plan, he hopes, would include investment and cooperation from the U.S. and Canada.

López Obrador’s administration is taking steps toward bringing Mexico’s southern neighbors on board. As one of his first acts as president, he will sign a preliminary agreement with Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala to begin addressing the migrant situation.

But López Obrador’s goal remains for the U.S. to join the plan and offer at least $20 billion in funding over the next few years. The leftist firebrand has already presented the Trump administration with the plan. But estimates are still being prepared to determine how much money is needed and how it would be divided between countries, Ebrard said last week.

One Mexican official also said last week that the incoming administration viewed Trump’s demands to keep migrants in Mexico as an opening bid for further negotiations.

“You cannot say it’s a Mexican problem, a U.S. problem. It’s a problem that involves us all,” said the official, who was not authorized to speak publicly. “Either you sit at the table or you’re a part of the menu.”

Whatever compromise is worked out, López Obrador, a Mexican populist who has long positioned himself as a champion for the poor, will also have to appease his base.

“You can’t be a nationalist in Mexico and not be willing to take on the U.S.,” said former Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez. “Does he want peace? Of course. I don’t think he wants a fight with the U.S. But it’s the events that will determine that.”

López Obrador — a lifelong politician who founded his own political party four years ago — is unlike his predecessors over the last 90 years, who have all come from the same two more-conservative political parties in Mexico.

So far, López Obrador, as a candidate and president-elect, has managed to avoid clashes with Trump, instead saying he wants a positive relationship built on “mutual respect.” Trump has also said he expects to have a “very good” relationship with the leftist.

But the Mexican leader — whose style evokes unavoidable comparisons to Trump — hasn’t shied away from criticizing his U.S. counterpart in the past. López Obrador even published a book called “Oye Trump” (“Listen Up, Trump”) that slammed Trump’s plans to build a border wall and his rhetoric against migrant workers.

In the immediate term, López Obrador’s policies may be reactionary because of Trump’s insistence on cracking down at the border. But many analysts caution that how López Obrador responds to the border crisis will send a larger message on how the new administration will operate under pressure.

“We are in between a rock and a hard place because the Trump administration wants a quick fix,” said Carlos Heredia, an associate professor for international studies at the Center for Research and Teaching in Economics in Mexico City, who is close to the new administration. “And there is no quick fix.”

Gabby Orr contributed to this report.