How electability is shaping the Democratic primary

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Quick Fix

— New polling from a Democratic digital firm shows that the party’s voters are considering electability when picking candidates — and details attributes Democrats think are the biggest stopping block.

— President Donald Trump officially launched his reelection campaign with a Tuesday rally in Orlando, embracing the trappings of the presidency.

— Republican Roy Moore is set to make an announcement Thursday on if he’ll run for the Senate in Alabama again.

Good Wednesday morning. Check out this great VICE News segment on what happened when they gave a little bit of money to every presidential campaign (hint: emails!). Email me at [email protected] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro.

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Days until the Mississippi gubernatorial primary election: 47

Days until the NC-03 and NC-09 general elections: 83

Days until the Louisiana gubernatorial primary election: 115

Days until the Kentucky, Mississippi, New Jersey and Virginia general elections: 139

Days until the 2020 election: 503

Top Line

THE ELECTABILITY CONSTRUCT — Electability is a nebulous concept, but a new survey seeks to examine how it is shaping the Democratic presidential primary.

New polling from Avalanche, a Democratic digital strategy firm, takes a novel approach to getting at the concept of electability. The poll asks voters two questions: your traditional horse-race question (“considering all the factors of the 2020 election … who would you vote for” today in the primary) and a “magic wand” question — “imagine you could choose any of the likely candidates and magically make them president. They don’t need to beat an opponent — you just get to wave a wand and it happens. Who would you choose?”

There’s a split for Democratic voters in those two questions. The horse-race question breaks down along the line of other national polls we have seen: Joe Biden is the leader, followed by Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris and Beto O’Rourke, in that order. But the “magic-wand question” sees Warren rise to first, followed by Sanders, Biden, Buttigieg, Harris and O’Rourke.

The biggest change comes from a precipitous drop for Biden from horse race to magic wand: 29 percent to 19 percent. Warren jumps from 16 percent to 21 percent. Sanders inches up from 17 percent to 19 percent. Buttigieg bumps up to 16 percent from 13 percent, while Harris and O’Rourke remain flat at 12 percent and 4 percent, respectively.

Another question the polling presents is about barriers to electability — asking voters what’s one quality they’d change about their favorite candidate to give their hopeful the best shot to win the 2020 election. Gender is perhaps the most interesting one: 24 percent of Democratic respondents who switched to a female candidate in the magic-wand question after picking a male candidate in the horse-race question cited that as the quality they’d change. Age is not much of a factor: Just 5 percent of Democrats whose candidate is over the age of 65 picked that as the quality they’d change.

“When it comes to perceived electability, the greatest messaging challenge for the campaigns of female candidates, like Sen. Warren, may not be convincing voters that a female candidate is more capable, but convincing voters that America is capable of electing a female candidate,” Michiah Prull the CEO of Avalanche, told Score.

The poll surveyed 1109 likely Democratic voters using the Civiqs platform (an online poling platform) from May 31-June 3.

Presidential Big Board

THE (OFFICIAL) REELECT — Trump 2020 has officially arrived. “The optics-obsessed president was greeted by thousands of adoring supporters when he arrived here on Tuesday to kick off his bid for a second term. In lieu of a red carpet, a sea of red, white and camouflage hats provided the backdrop for his first official campaign rally of the 2020 cycle,” POLITICO’s Gabby Orr reported from Orlando. “Trump’s reelection launch — with an all-day tailgate party beforehand and a festival-like feel — borrowed a key ingredient from the unorthodox announcement speech he delivered four years ago: Nothing about it was normal, but it was a captivating show.”

THE DEBATE STAGE — Literally, the debate stage: NBC News announced podium placement for both nights, with Warren and O’Rourke center-stage for night one and Biden and Sanders up front for night two. Here’s the complete lineups from me.

— There’s been a lot of complaints about the primary process, but Democratic primary voters are largely nonplussed by them. Here’s my dive into a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll that found that voters largely approve of how the DNC has handled the debate process.

— Someone who will likely be watching both nights? Trump. The president “is tentatively planning to live-tweet the debates,” The Wall Street Journal’s Michael Bender reported, citing “people familiar with the planning.”

BIDEN’S BIG DONORS — A line from Biden’s fundraiser with donors that likely caught the attention of some of his rivals: “The truth of the matter is, it’s all within our wheelhouse and nobody has to be punished. No one’s standard of living would change. Nothing would fundamentally change,” the former vice president said on rich Americans, per Bloomberg’s Jennifer Epstein.

POLLS POLLS POLLS — A Quinnipiac University poll in Florida gives Biden a strong lead in the state. Biden has 41 percent to Sanders’ 14 percent and Warren’s 12 percent. Buttigieg is at 8 percent, Harris is at 6 percent and O’Rourke, Cory Booker and Amy Klobuchar each have 1 percent, the last candidates who hit that mark (417 registered Democrats, June 12-17).

POLICY PRIMARY — Klobuchar released a “raft” of policy plans she’d want to accomplish in her first 100 days, including reentering the Paris climate agreement, raising the minimum wage of federal contractors and more, per POLITICO’s Elena Schneider.

STAFFING UP — Washington Gov. Jay Inslee has hired a handful of new staffers: digital director Travis Mackler, deputy digital director Rainee Taylor and digital organizing director Kristin Brown, press secretary Katie Rodihan, operations director Molly Keenan and more, POLITICO’s Daniel Strauss reported. He now has over two dozen staffers.

Down the Ballot

MOORE PROBLEMS — Moore, who lost his 2017 race to Democrat Doug Jones after allegations of sexual misconduct with young girls, is set to announce his decision for the 2020 Senate race on Sunday, POLITICO’s James Arkin and Alex Isenstadt reported. “Judge has spoken with most all of you on the phone over the past few weeks and is appreciative of your warm support,” Kayla Moore, Roy Moore’s wife, wrote in a draft note that was expected to go to Moore’s friends and was obtained by James and Alex. “We will be making an official announcement regarding the [Senate] race in Montgomery this Thursday [afternoon].”

If Moore does run, he would join a crowded GOP field. Rep. Bradley Byrne, former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville and state Rep. Arnold Mooney are all already running, and state Secretary of State John Merrill filed paperwork with the FEC on Tuesday to run as well. Merrill tweeted that he filed to comply with election law and that if he runs, he’ll “be making a formal announcement next week.”

THE GOVERNATORS — White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders is on the way out. How seriously is the talk of running for Arkansas governor in 2022? “Sanders and her allies have started making calls to donors and Republican operatives in the state,” POLITICO’s Andrew Restuccia and Daniel Lippman reported. “Though neither Sanders nor her associates have directly sought support for a potential campaign, some who have spoken with them see the outreach as a sign that she’s weighing a run.”

ON THE AIR WAVES — Club for Growth Action released an ad in Montana’s at-large congressional race hammering Republican Corey Stapleton (the group endorsed Matt Rosendale on Monday), calling him “costly Corey Stapleton.” Advertising Analytics tracks about $30,000 in spending on Fox News in the state.

PRIMARY PROBLEMS — Justice Democrats have made another endorsement. They’re backing Jamaal Bowman, a middle-school principal, in his primary challenge to Rep. Eliot Engel in NY-16, POLITICO New York’s Amanda Eisenberg reported.

THE SPECIAL ELECTIONS — Voters are now voting (again) in NC-03: In-person early voting for the runoff Republican primary between Greg Murphy and Joan Perry begins today and runs through July 5. Election Day is July 9.

THE HOUSE MAP — Democrat Nick Colvin launched his bid for MI-03 on Tuesday. He is an alum of former President Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign and the Obama White House. This is the seat currently held by GOP Rep. Justin Amash, against whom Trump is considering backing a primary challenge.

— Former Indianapolis Mayor Greg Ballard, a Republican, could run in the now-open IN-05, WTTV’s Dan Spehler reported, citing “sources close to Ballard”.

CONSULTANTS’ CORNER — Doug Thornell, Oren Shur and Emily Campbell are now principals at SKDKnickerbocker and will head the firm’s political consulting department, SKDKPolitical.

— Charly Norton has joined Bergmann Zwerdling Direct, a Democratic direct mail firm, as vice president.

— Jeb Fain has started as Trump War Room communications director at American Bridge. He was comms director at House Majority PAC last cycle.

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: “Feeling cute. Might delete later.” — Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio), who tweeted out a picture of NBC News’ … creative? … caricatures of the presidential candidates.