‘I’m all for masks’

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With help from Myah Ward

TRUMP MASKS UP — One of the relatively clear findings of political science is that when members of a party are confronted with a new policy question, they will look to trusted ideological leaders for cues about what the “right” position is.

Consider the politics of masks.

When the seriousness of the coronavirus pandemic was understood in March, it was mostly people on the left who decried the use of masks. Liberals argued that the science behind preventing the spread of the disease through mask-wearing was thin or, alternatively, that they should be reserved for health care workers so buying them was an act of selfishness. Mask wearers were shamed on social media by people on the left. But after the CDC promoted the use of masks, liberals, led by prominent Democratic politicians, quickly got on board.

On the right, a libertarian strain won the day and mask wearing became seen as an infringement on liberty. But one could just have easily predicted that conservatives were going to see a virus that emanated from China as a foreign threat and a national security issue that needed to be defeated with all of the U.S. government’s resources. This was how many people on the right saw the threat of the Ebola virus during the Obama administration.

What actually determined the consensus conservative position on masks for the first four months of the pandemic had nothing to do with ideology, and it had nothing to do with science, either. It had to do with personality — specifically the personality of President Donald Trump. He was anti-mask and, as the political science literature predicts, the conservative movement rallied around his position.

After months of anti-mask messaging, Trump finally reversed himself today.

“I’m all for masks,” he said, adding that he would wear one if he were in a crowded room and noting that he had a black one on recently. “I sort of liked the way I looked.”

Many prominent Republicans and conservatives — Vice President Mike Pence, former Vice President Dick Cheney, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, “Fox and Friends” host Steve Doocy, Trump whisperer Sean Hannity — have sent a similar message in recent days as coronavirus cases have spiked, especially in red states through the Sun Belt.

For the many conservative voters who look to their leaders for guidance, today just might be the start of a sustained public health campaign that could save lives.

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly: Coronavirus Special Edition. Renu will be interviewing Miami Mayor Francis Suarez next Wednesday for our virtual new event series. POLITICO Nightly: Daytime Edition. You can register to join us here. Renu adds: I promise not to ask him about any behind the scenes Jane the Virgin gossip. Reach out with tips: [email protected] or on Twitter at@renurayasam. Nightly will be off July 3-6. We will return Tuesday, July 7.

First In Nightly

HOW WE BOTCHED REOPENING — States emerging from coronavirus “stay-at-home” orders this spring had a roadmap to safety at their fingertips. Much of it was never put in place. Or it was largely ignored. And the alarming surge in coronavirus cases now spreading across the country is less a surprise than a tragically predictable national “I told you so” moment, executive health care editor Joanne Kenen writes. “Every state was allowed to go off and do their own activities,” said Howard Koh, a senior public health official in the Obama administration who is now at Harvard. “And a lot of states opened up when the trends were going the wrong way.”

To open safely, states needed vastly expanded testing. They needed contact tracing to identify and isolate people who had been exposed. They needed clear, consistent public health messaging and a coordinated national response, so that Americans could understand that even as economic activity resumes, life does not return to normal. And states needed to pay attention to the epidemiological data — diagnoses, positivity rates, hospital admissions, ICU capacity — that would tell them if their caseload was going down and staying down before taking the next step in gradually reopening.

But the hierarchy of risk was put aside. Some states that initially avoided the worst effects of Covid-19 stampeded right through the gates. The current resurgence of Covid-19 cases — and most experts see this as a wave within a first wave, not the second wave that many fear will arrive in the fall — wasn’t inevitable. On an almost daily basis, health experts issued public warnings about the risk. By the time governors listened, cases were exploding.

Around the Nation

SKY ROCKETS IN FLIGHT — Canadians are celebrating Canada Day today witha virtual fireworks show instead of the usual display at Ottawa’s Parliament Hill. In the U.S., however, there’s little consensus about how to celebrate our upcoming Independence Day. State officials have partly blamed Memorial Day celebrations for recent case count spikes and hospitalizations. They worry that July 4 gatherings will exacerbate the current crisis.

Arkansas has triple the number of cases today compared with Memorial Day, making the same activities like gathering for barbecues far more dangerous, said Nate Smith, Arkansas Secretary of Health and president of the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials on a media call today.

Despite the risks of big gatherings, the Trump administration decided that this year’s July 4 celebration at the National Mall will be bigger than ever, with more than 10,000 fireworks launched from two different sites over the course of 35 minutes, according todetails released today by the Interior Department. The release said that 300,000 cloth masks would be distributed to visitors. Republican South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem said Tuesday that there would be no social distancing required at a July 3 fireworks show at Mount Rushmore with Trump. And today, Anthony Fauci discouraged Americans from attending the event.

As with so much of the pandemic response, individual cities — and in some cases states — are making their own judgments about whether to keep or can this year’s fireworks displays. Our reporters scattered around the country sent us these dispatches:

New York officials spread out the annual Macy’s July 4 fireworks show over six days this week with launches from unannounced locations and a broadcast of the smaller shows planned for Saturday.

Chicago has scrapped itsmain Navy Pier fireworks show, but there are still smaller celebrations in the ‘burbs.

The annual Boston Pops Fireworks Spectacular was canceled in May, but the orchestra will hold a virtual broadcast on July 4.

In California, Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom urged 19 counties to cancel fireworks shows. Many cities, includingSan Francisco, already have called off the festivities, but one city in Sacramento County, Folsom, is holding a“drive-in” fireworks show on July 3 with cars parked further apart and no food sales, according to our California editor, Kevin Yamamura. A couple other cities in Orange County are planning similar events, according to the OC Register. One city is launching fireworks without having a viewing location, telling residents to watch from their homes.

In New Jersey, education reporter Carly Sitrin tells us that aerial consumer fireworks remain prohibited, but Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy signed an executive order on June 14 permitting organized fireworks displays at public and private beaches, boardwalks, lakes, and lakeshores subject to the restrictions on outdoor gatherings. Still, many municipalities have gone ahead and postponed or canceled their events including Ocean City, which normally has a Night in Venice party.

The biggest fireworks show in South Florida in Miami’s Bayfront Park is off, and the nearby town ofHialeah, Fla., is holding a fireworks display but asking people to stream the festivities from home.

In Arizona,many towns are canceling their celebrations, but a few have converted to a drive in show.

Houston is holdinga concert and fireworks display without a live audience.

And Washington D.C’s neighboring towns, including Alexandria, Va.,and Takoma Park, Md., are also canceling their celebrations. A short drive up I-95, Baltimore is too.

And not even cities and states can shut down the impromptu displays of patriotism cropping up around the country. Our Chicago area based Natasha Korecki sends usthis handy guide from the Chicago Sun-Times for differentiating between fireworks and gunshots.

40 PERCENT — The spread of the coronavirus has increased racial tensions across the country, and Asian Americans and African Americans are facing the worst of it, according to findings from a new survey released today. In the study, conducted by the Pew Research Center, 40 percent of Black and Asian American adults said they have been treated differently or subjected to slurs or jokes as a result of the pandemic, campaign 2020 reporting fellow Maya King writes. A plurality of both groups also expressed anxiety about wearing a mask in public out of fears that they would be viewed as a threat or physically attacked.

Trump has repeatedly blamed China for the global spread of the virus, referring to it as the “Chinese virus” or “kung flu” during recent rallies and news conferences. “It’s hard to attribute causality, but what we can say is that many Asian Americans feel they have been subject to slurs or jokes because of their race or ethnicity since the outbreak,” said Neil Ruiz, associate director of global migration and demography at Pew, who co-authored the report.

Ask The Audience

Nightly asks you: How has the pandemic changed your July 4 holiday? Send us your answer using our form, and we’ll include some of them in our Thursday edition.

On The Economy

JUNE JOBS PREVIEW — Economists are expecting to learn that the country added about 3 million jobs in June, when the Labor Department releases its monthly jobs report on Thursday. But that was before virus cases started surging across the South and West, and many states started shutting down recently opened businesses. Your host Slack chatted with reporter Megan Cassella about what economists expect in the report and whether fears of a second wave are warranted. This conversation has been edited.

What can we expect in Thursday’s job numbers?

Since Friday is a holiday, we’re getting the double-whammy of jobs reports tomorrow — one showing the number of Americans filing unemployment claims last week, and another estimating the overall unemployment rate for June.

We don’t know what they’ll show, but we can try to guess (though that can be a dangerous game these days). The weekly claims are expected to remain elevated as they have been for months, likely showing another 1.5 million or so Americans — or perhaps more — filing an application for jobless benefits. The monthly numbers could be slightly more hopeful. But they also warn that these monthly numbers come from a survey conducted in mid-June — and that the economy has taken a turn for the worse since then, as the coronavirus surged.

Are there fears of a second unemployment wave?

For sure. There’s some anecdotal evidence out there of some folks getting laid off for a second time — anyone who works at a bar in California, for example. There’s some real-time private data showing that business activity plateaued and is now even dropping again in states where the virus is spreading rapidly.

On a broader level, economists and some lawmakers say we’ve always known that the coronavirus dictates the economic recovery, and jobs won’t come back until the virus is contained. We’re seeing those effects play out again now.

What about people who have officially kept their jobs — how do things look for them?

Anecdotally, we do hear stories about employers cutting pay, usually as a way to try to avoid layoffs. Some high-profile executives have announced they’re cutting their own pay. The idea of course is that with money so tight, if everyone makes a little less, more people can keep their jobs. Some companies have also taken advantage of the heightened unemployment aid by furloughing workers now, knowing they can get the extra money.

How accurate will the June jobs numbers be?

The survey was conducted in mid-June. They’re likely to paint a picture way rosier than what’s happening on the ground now.

From the Health Desk

‘REACHING OR NEAR CAPACITY’ — The United States’ coronavirus testing capacity is at risk of being overwhelmed in some states by a surge in new infections and increased surveillance efforts in nursing homes and jails, Brett Giroir, the coronavirus testing czar said today. “It is absolutely correct that some labs across the country are reaching or near capacity,” Giroir said. Giroir emphasized that young adults, who account for the majority of new cases, must be vigilant about practicing social distancing and wearing a mask, health care reporter David Lim writes. The Department of Health and Human Services is developing plans to implement surge testing in moderate-sized communities of high concern in Texas, Florida and Louisiana, to try to bring the outbreaks in those areas under control.

Behind the anti-maskers — Last year, it was vaccines. Now, it’s masks. California reporter Mackenzie Mays looks at how the same activists are once again turning a public health issue into a culture war — and why that’s a big problem for state lawmakers and school teachers — in the latest edition of POLITICO Dispatch.

Talking to the Experts

What is the difference between those democracies that have responded effectively to coronavirus and those that have not?

“The democracies led by populists — the U.S., U.K., Brazil — have done poorly, and the democracies led by institutionalists have done well: Merkel being a prime example of an institutionalist. Then there’s a separate cut, which is “old democracy” vs. “young democracy.” This doesn’t entirely work because it doesn’t take the developing world into account, but basically, if you look at Germany, New Zealand, Australia, Taiwan, those are all young democracies. Whereas the U.K., the U.S., France, those are older democracies. And I think there are two features there: one, just a certain kind of aged sclerosis comes with bureaucratic buildup over time, a lack of flexibility and nimbleness.

“But another thing matters, too: The younger democracies, simply by virtue of having their birth connected to a later historical moment, have more fully embraced the concept of social rights and consequently went into this crisis understanding that the social compact includes things like health, and that the goal of a national response is, among other things, to protect the foundation for social rights. Whereas the U.K., U.S., we have systems that rely — in their fundamentals — on 18th-century conceptions of political and civil rights as the bedrock; social rights are still a contested matter for us.” — Danielle Allen, head of Harvard’s Safra Center for Ethics and co-author of the university’s “Roadmap to Pandemic Resilience,” as told to POLITICO Magazine’s Zack Stanton

PUNCHLINES

‘I’M TRYING TO DEMOLISH STUFF’ — Matt Wuerker talks satire during the Trump administration, as well as Pixar’s Coco and Latino culture in humor with cartoonist Lalo Alcaraz in the latest edition of Punchlines.

Nightly Number

Parting Words

PANDEMIC PUP — Marc Caputo emails us:

Stuck at home to avoid coronavirus, Florida Rep. Donna Shalala decided to get a dog. Her old pooch died two years ago, and “I thought Covid is a perfect opportunity to get a new dog because we’re stuck,” she said.

She checked with Miami-based Paws 4 You Rescue to see what they had. The rescue had the perfect Yorkie, Shalala said, one who’s about four years old and recently wandered lost into Strada In The Grove restaurant in the heart of her Miami-based district.

“They said I should give him an Italian name,” Shalala said. So the former Health and Human Services secretary thought of an old friend who’s now the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

“I named him Fauci,” she said.

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