POLITICO Playbook: America, disrupted

Presented by the Financial Services Forum

DRIVING THE DAY

IT’S IN MOMENTS LIKE THIS -- when society is at its weakest and most vulnerable -- that Americans look to their government for answers. It’s in moments like this -- when social norms, structures, leisure activities and workplace conventions are upended -- that we expect unity, and clarity, from our political leaders.

BUT THE AMERICAN POLITICAL SYSTEM is, at the moment, as shaken to its core as the rest of society. Our institutions have been disrupted. Our elected officials have no certain answers. There are few figures who have the public’s universal trust. And all this leaves the country -- and, indeed, the world -- with a deepening sense of angst and confusion.

-- THE CAPITOL has been compromised. An aide in Sen. MARIA CANTWELL’S (D-Wash.) office has tested positive for the virus. As of this morning, tours have been canceled. But before that, thousands of aides, reporters and lawmakers had been milling around a building teeming with tourists who touch walls, banisters, elevators, counters and windows. Lawmakers -- many of whom are of advanced age -- spend up to 12 hours each week on airplanes, yet stand within feet of each other in committee hearing rooms, on the House and Senate floor and in hallways. Reporters are often shoulder to shoulder with them, too, sticking our hands in their faces to record their utterances.

-- OUR LEADERS can’t say how long this virus will last. President DONALD TRUMP has said that for the vast majority of Americans, “the risk is very, very low.” Experts anticipate that it will get worse, but what does that mean? Does it mean that we should cancel large-scale gatherings for the next few weeks? Few months? Does it mean that we shouldn’t travel? Does it mean we should avoid mass transit? Shared rides? Human contact? The guidance from authorities is changing by the day, and it’s hard for most people to keep up.

-- WHOEVER’S FAULT IT IS, AMERICANS are having a tough time getting tested for this very dangerous, quite lethal and very communicable disease. DANIEL GOLDMAN, who just ended a stint as a top aide to Rep. ADAM SCHIFF (D-Calif.), said this: “Let’s be very clear: unless you have pneumonia and traveled to one of 5 high-risk countries recently, you can NOT get a #COVID19 test in New York City. If you, like me, have a fever and a headache (but tested negative for the flu), you are unable to rule out #COVID19. Shameful.”

-- THE PRESIDENT went on television Wednesday night to explain his new policy for restricting travelers from overseas, but he didn’t announce any new measures to mitigate the spread of the virus among Americans already living here. The general outlines of the restrictions are: Foreign nationals cannot travel to the U.S. if they’ve been in the EU’s Schengen Area within the last 14 days, companies will have new access to SBA loans, and Americans can defer tax payments without interest or penalties.

BUT TRUMP mistakenly said that cargo from Europe would not be allowed into the U.S., and officials scrambled to clarify what he meant. He didn’t explain why the U.K. was exempted from these strict rules -- London Heathrow is the largest European aviation gateway. And he wrongly said that health insurers had “agreed to waive all copayments for coronavirus treatments,” when they had actually agreed only to do so for testing. The president called for a payroll tax holiday, which leading members of both parties have already rejected. Gabby Orr on the address … The text of the president’s executive order … The transcript of his remarks

-- CONGRESS, an institution that is, at best, beset by partisanship and, at worst, paralyzed by it, will take a second stab at legislating to help Americans today. THE HOUSE will look to pass a bill that would bolster unemployment benefits, institute paid sick leave, offer free testing and secure free lunch for kids. REPUBLICANS told us they wanted to vote for the bill. Then, after it came out, they sounded cool to it. We have no idea whether it could pass the Republican-controlled Senate or garner TRUMP’s signature. If it doesn’t, that would be a major setback, and would push solutions off for days if not weeks. The White House hasn’t said one way or another what it wants. Read the details, from Sarah Ferris, Heather Caygle and John Bresnahan

-- THE EMERGENCY BRAKE HAS BEEN PULLED on the 2020 presidential campaign. It seems likely that large-scale rallies are over, for the time being. If nothing changes, how will the Republican National Committee and Democratic National Committee justify conventions in Charlotte and Milwaukee?

-- WASHINGTON IS SET TO SHUT DOWN after today. Congress is leaving town. Fly-ins have been canceled. White House events are being put off. A growing number of the area’s workers have been told to telework. Wealthy people are decamping for vacation homes. Schools are preparing for remote learning, if they haven’t started already.

BUT THERE’S A LIKELIHOOD -- perhaps a certainty -- that the city’s political class will need to snap back into action, and quickly. This pandemic will likely require drastic measures in the coming months.

WE SHOULD NOT COMPARE ANYTHING TO SEPT. 11. But the uncertainty, and the paralysis of our financial markets, our political system and our society is starting to remind many of the atmosphere here 19 years ago.

RESTRICTED: travel from Europe. SUSPENDED: the NBA regular season, White House and Capitol tours. CLOSED: college campuses here in the District and across the country. CANCELED: TRUMP’S trip to Las Vegas and Colorado, as well as a campaign event in Milwaukee.

DOW FUTURES were down more than 1,200 points as of 6 a.m.

-- WSJ: “U.S. Travel Restrictions Fuel Fresh Global Selloff,” by Joanne Chiu: “U.S. stock futures and global indexes plunged, adding new turmoil to a roller-coaster week for markets, as a U.S. travel ban stoked renewed worries about the coronavirus’s economic toll.

“S&P 500 futures were down 4%, suggesting U.S. shares could be set for another punishing session later Thursday, a day after the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid into a bear market. European indexes fell at the start of trading Thursday, with the pan-continental Stoxx Europe 600 shedding 5.4% and Italy’s FTSE MIB falling 5.8%.

“Benchmarks in Australia, Hong Kong, India, Japan and South Korea fell to multiyear lows, crude-oil prices dropped and U.S. government bonds rallied.”

Good Thursday morning.

OUR LEADERS …

-- HEATHER CAYGLE and JOHN BRESNAHAN: “Pelosi ignores Trump taunts as she steers through another crisis”: “For any other leader, the rapid turnaround on the recovery plan would be a herculean feat at best. But for Pelosi, successfully negotiating a multi-billion-dollar economic package with a hostile and often antagonistic Trump administration was just another day in the speaker’s suite.

“It’s also a reminder that for all Trump’s omnipresence on Twitter and cable TV, Pelosi remains the dominant figure on Capitol Hill when it comes time to actually getting something accomplished.” POLITICO

-- AP’S JONATHAN LEMIRE with an “Analysis” bug: “Facing virus outbreak, Trump’s tactics fall short”: “The escalating coronavirus crisis is presenting President Donald Trump with a challenge for which he appears ill-equipped, his favorite political tactics ineffective and his reelection chances in jeopardy.

“A rare crisis battering the White House that is not of the president’s own making, the spreading coronavirus has panicked global financial markets and alarmed Americans, many of whom have turned to the Oval Office for guidance and reassurances. But what they have found is a president struggling for a solution, unable to settle Wall Street and proving particularly vulnerable to a threat that is out of his control.” AP

-- WHITE HOUSE MEMO … NYT’S PETER BAKER: “Presidents Forge Their Legacies in Crises”: “[C]rises are moments when presidents can rise above prior troubles or sink deeper into them, as Mr. Bush discovered. A onetime political colossus with a 90 percent approval rating built on his response to the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, Mr. Bush’s presidency was marred by Katrina, which became a modern metaphor for a mishandled crisis.

“Whether Mr. Trump’s approach to the coronavirus outbreak becomes remembered the same way or not, it is too early to say, and they are very different challenges. But the history of presidents grappling with crises is replete with lessons that sometimes go unlearned and examples that go unheeded.”

-- NYT’S MARK LANDLER in London: “A Fumbled Global Response to the Virus in a Leadership Void”: “As the toll of those afflicted by the virus continued to soar and financial markets from Tokyo to New York continued to swoon, world leaders are finally starting to find their voices about the gravity of what is now officially a pandemic.

“Yet it remains less a choir than a cacophony — a dissonant babble of politicians all struggling, in their own way, to cope with the manifold challenges posed by the virus, from its crushing burden on hospitals and health care workers to its economic devastation and rising death toll.

“The choir also lacks a conductor, a role played through most of the post-World War II era by the United States.President Trump has failed to work with other leaders to fashion a common response, preferring to promote his border wall over the scientific advice of his own medical experts.” NYT

-- WaPo’s Matt Viser (@mviser): “Joe Biden [today] will be giving an address on the coronavirus at 1 p.m. in Wilmington, Del. Expect it, in many ways, to be different from the address just given from the Oval Office.”

THE DISTRICT, via WaPo’s Jenna Portnoy, Fenit Nirappil and Darran Simon: “The Episcopal Dioceses of Washington and Virginia said churches including Washington National Cathedral would close for two weeks. The Walter E. Washington Convention Center canceled upcoming events, as did the promoter of concerts at the Anthem, the 9:30 Club, the Lincoln Theater and U Street Music Hall.

“Organizers said parts of the annual Cherry Blossom Festival would be shelved, the Rock ‘n’ Roll Marathon had its city permit pulled, and the St. Patrick’s Day parade scheduled for Sunday was postponed indefinitely.”

-- “Canadian officials reviewing border policy as COVID-19 spreads across the U.S.,” by the Toronto Star’s Alex Boutilier: “Prime Minister Justin Trudeau acknowledged that with hundreds of thousands of people crossing the border every day, the U.S. is ‘a real potential vector of transmission.’” Toronto Star

TRUMP’S THURSDAY -- The president will participate in the arrival of Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar at 10:45 a.m. in the West Wing lobby. The two will participate in a meeting in the Oval Office followed by an expanded bilateral meeting.

PLAYBOOK READS

WHAT A STORY! … SAN DIEGO UNION TRIBUNE: “New details of misconduct by former Rep. Duncan Hunter emerge ahead of sentencing,” by Morgan Cook and Jeff McDonald: “Even as former Rep. Duncan Hunter insisted publicly that he never mishandled campaign donations — allegations he later admitted to in U.S. District Court— the Republican from Alpine was deliberately hiding his criminal behavior, federal prosecutors said in a filing Tuesday.

“The disgraced congressman, who in January resigned the 50th District seat he held for almost six terms, knowingly used political contributions to support a lavish lifestyle, including fancy meals, trips with girlfriends and even paying for his children’s private-school tuition, the filing states.

“At the same time Hunter told national television audiences and local supporters that he did nothing wrong, claiming he was the victim of a witch hunt cooked up by his political enemies, hundreds of pages of evidence made public Tuesday show the congressman was actively obfuscating his role in the campaign finance scandal. … Hunter met a woman … and quickly moved in with the unidentified woman, prosecutors said. … Other court records show Hunter engaged in at least four other extramarital affairs, often subsidizing getaways with political donations to his congressional campaigns.”

DOWN BALLOT: “Democrats smell blood in Texas after sky-high primary turnout,” by Ally Mutnick: “Staggeringly high Democratic turnout in the Texas suburbs last week has the party bullish about capturing a half-dozen seats that slipped through its grasp in the 2018 midterms.

“Democratic primaries in six GOP-held districts saw a roughly 100 percent increase in voters compared to 2016, according to a POLITICO analysis of turnout data. The spike indicates that a lethal recipe might be brewing for Republicans in the run-up to November: President Donald Trump’s unpopularity in the suburbs, combined with rapid demographic change and an amped-up Democratic base.

“After coming tantalizingly close to flipping several red-leaning seats in 2018, Democratic candidates are gearing up in and around the state’s five largest cities. Their game plan: win over moderates and independents repelled by the president, and bring in as many new Democratic voters as possible.” POLITICO

FOR YOUR RADAR -- “Rocket Attack on Iraqi Base Kills Two U.S. Troops, British Soldier,” by WSJ’s Isabel Coles and Nancy Youssef: “Two American troops and a British soldier were killed in a rocket attack Wednesday that targeted an Iraqi base where coalition troops are stationed, and U.S. officials said they are considering retaliatory options.

“Another 12 people were wounded in the attack, some severely, according to one official. … The attack came two months after a U.S. drone strike in Baghdad killed Iranian Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Iranian military unit responsible for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ external operations. It marked a new escalation in regional tensions that had eased after Maj. Gen. Soleimani’s killing in January brought the region to the brink of war.” WSJ

-- QASSEM SOLEIMANI was born on March 11.

MEDIAWATCH -- Mike Farrell is joining cybersecurity firm Synack as head of media. He most recently has been cybersecurity editor for POLITICO.

PLAYBOOKERS

Send tips to Eli Okun and Garrett Ross at [email protected].

SPOTTED: Robert O’Brien having an off-the-record dinner Tuesday night at CSIS hosted by the think tank’s Dan Runde for about 20 current and former officials.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK -- NSC ARRIVAL LOUNGE -- Hugh Dugan is now special assistant to the president and senior director for international organizations at the NSC. He most recently was acting special presidential envoy for hostage affairs and has also been a professor of diplomacy at Seton Hall University. He was also a longtime career State employee.

TRANSITION -- Aviva Rosenthal has been appointed director of the Smithsonian Institution’s Office of International Relations. She previously was senior adviser there, and is an Obama State Department and Clinton White House alum.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD -- Jared Bass, a professional staff member for the House Appropriations Committee, and Chloe Bass, technical adviser for women’s economic empowerment at World Vision, recently welcomed Caleb Bass. He joins older brother Josiah. Pic

-- Lakecia Foster Stickney, policy director for House Democratic Caucus Chairman Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), and Alim Stickney, senior staff project accountant at CallisonRTKL, recently welcomed Alim S. Stickney II (“Deuce”). He came in at 7 lbs, 13 oz and 20 inches. Pic … Another pic

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Matt Bravo, principal at S-3 Group. A trend he thinks doesn’t get enough attention: “How the Washington Redskins are going to build a powerhouse football team (and hopefully a new stadium) soon.” Playbook Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) is 73 … Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) is 52 … Jake Tapper is 51 (h/t Ben Chang) … Rep. Val Demings (D-Fla.) is 63 … Rep. Joyce Beatty (D-Ohio) is 7-0 … former Sen. Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) is 72 … Andrew Young is 88 … WSJ’s Emily Stephenson … POLITICO’s Justin Stuckey … Lloyd Dobyns is 84 … James Ball … Alex Vargo … Neil Fried … Riley Barnes, senior adviser at State, is 33 … Scott Comer … HUD’s Ashley Ludlow … Remi Yamamoto of Joe Biden’s campaign … Kathleen Siedlecki (h/t Jon Haber) … Rebekah Williams Lovorn … Preston Maddock … Eric Shawn, Fox News anchor/senior correspondent … Jeremy Pelzer is 38 … Andres Penfold of NBC News … Wroe Jackson … Chris Ellis … Lewis Laskin … Chris LaPlaca … Sam Noel …

… Eric Burns, founder/partner at Bullfight Strategies … Reed DesRosiers … Carl Hiaasen is 67 … Marcy Stech, director of communications at Emerson Collective … Slate’s Jim Newell is 35 … FT’s Peter Spiegel … Jalen Drummond … Tara (Jeffries) Payne is 27 … Aaron Magid is 31 … Selma Bardakci … Katie Armstrong … Adam Sullivan, assistant Transportation secretary for governmental affairs … Marshall Kosloff … Elizabeth Hinson … Julia Nista … Melissa Ryan … Theresa Jansen … State’s Kedenard Raymond … Brian Weiss, VP of media affairs at USTelecom … David Sheon, president and CEO of Whitecoat Strategies … Noah Flessel … Steven Stenberg, president at Arc Reaction … Aaron Kraus … Jeff Lande … Yana Calou … Talia Schmidt … Nick Woodfield … Rebecca Dishotsky … Stacey Grundman