Joe Biden has been declared the winner, toppling Donald Trump after four years of upheaval in the White House.

Taking Biden at face value about Michigan and Wisconsin — where, for what it's worth (not that much), the exit poll data looks pretty good for him and he came in with a significant polling lead — here's where the map goes: If Biden wins those two, plus Maine, Nevada and Arizona, but nothing else, he's at 269 electoral votes. Which means he's a Nebraska-02 (where he's currently leading) away from hitting 270 on the number, WITHOUT Pennsylvania and Maine's 2nd District.

Trump is expected to also make a statement tonight.

Those car horns do NOT translate well on television.

"Keep the faith guys, we're going to win this," Biden says to a sea of car horns honking away at the rally.

Biden giving Dems some hope here: "We believe we’re on track to win this election."

It's such a blow to Iowa Democrats who really believed they were gaining traction in the state.

Joe Biden is now speaking.

I think Iowa and Ohio are going to miss being swing states, and all the attention and economic benefit that attaches to that status.

Even if Biden pulls this out, very likely he will face Mitch McConnell instead of Chuck Schumer which will stop a lot of his most ambitious agenda items.

Happy now, Marc? AP just called Florida for Trump.

UPDATE: Biden plans to speak at 12:30 a.m.

Biden's win in Minnesota shuts down one Trump path to 270 electoral votes. But those three core states — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — still loom large here.

Alex It's like the Biden camp dabbled in Ohio from time to time, put some ad money in there but never really seriously invested in it.

On strategy, Christopher, you had to give Trump credit on the media front...he was doing gaggles everywhere. We caught him out here in CA...where the possiblities of him picking up votes from media avail was not optimal. (OK, so he called our question "nasty,'' when we asked if he cared about blue states. ) But media availability wasn't a problem...and from a CA viewpoint, it hasn't always been easy to get an avail with Kamala Harris, even in her earlier races.

Steven just called Ohio for Trump. Biden's team went there yesterday for a last second push in Cleveland. Trump has held on.

Hard to completely defend Biden's strategy given where this race is. They went to Ohio yesterday and Trump looking likely there now too.

Biden team doesn’t advertise their interviews as much, but by my count Kamala Harris did about 14 today, including radio and TV in several swing states. 

The Trump camp reaction to Fox calling Arizona for Biden tells you just how big they think that is to him. Hearing lots of pushback, and spokespeople and Trump advisers are tweeting their displeasure at Fox. 

The rallies were demonstrative of just overall activity too. Trump's team did more interviews, stops, etc. Pence did 21 local tv interviews today, for example. Biden's team felt laying low was to their advantage and I wonder if they are second guessing that now. Maybe not. Just seems like a reasonable question to ask given where we are at.

Biden rallies were not advertised and they were drive-in events where people would honk their approval, which is kind of odd considering how honking is otherwise considered rude and annoying 

Alex From lots of Dems I’ve talked to about the rallies the takeaway is that Trump had far more to lose when he couldn’t do rallies and more to gain when he did. For Biden, the rally aspect just wasn’t a driver that it was for Trump. 

Trump did more than twice as many rallies as Biden did in the final week of the race. I wonder if there is any second-guessing themselves in Biden land given how much of a squeaker this has become.

Christopher It is too early to tell. Milwaukee County -- a Democratic stronghold -- says it won't have results until 5 a.m. at the earliest. Republicans are feeling good about their rural turnout. But Democrats point to Dane County, the biggest pot of votes for Democrats. Biden is on pace to outperform Clinton in Dane County, which has also seen population growth since 2016.

One thing to keep in mind as we've seen Biden's polling numbers vanish in states like Florida and North Carolina: His leads were much larger in Michigan and Wisconsin, and a bit larger in Pennsylvania. So he has a little cushion there to work with.

With the caveat that we still know very, very little about Pennsylvania, let's zoom in on one county: Washington County, which is in the pro-Trump western part of the state. Trump wanted to drive more votes out of it; Biden wanted to cut his losses. One smart PA Dem strategist told me he wanted Biden to get to 40% in the county.

According to the NYT, more than 98% of estimated votes there have been reported. Here's the count:

2020: Trump: 70,760 (61.01%) Biden: 43,949 (37.89%)

2016: Trump: 61,386 (60.51%) Clinton: 36,322 (35.80%)

So, assuming NYT's 98%+ reporting estimate is correct, Trump got more raw votes out of Washington County like he wanted — quite a bit more. And Biden did cut his losses compared to Clinton. But Biden didn't get to 40% like the strategist wanted (and which Obama got beyond twice).

I'm still obsessing over Nebraska's electoral vote in the 2nd District. Looks like Sarpy County is reverting to form and Trump leads there (w/86% in). But Biden is running much better than Clinton in both Douglas and Sarpy counties so he's still in the hunt

Will be interesting to compare how Biden does with California's Latinos, who make up 40 percent of the state's population. Latinos were 20 percent of the early voters, and here, they're overwhelmingly Mexican-American, and Central American -- very different voter bloc than in FLA

Trump lost Osceola by 14 points this time. He lost it by 25 in 2016

There's a lot of chalking up Biden's loss in Florida to "Cubans in Miami." Intriguingly, the other large Hispanic County of Florida, Osceola, showed Trump doing 11 points better than he did in 2016 (Trump did 22 points better in Miami-Dade). Osceola is a Puerto Rican-heavy county. So Biden's problem was with at least 60 percent of the Florida Hispanic electorate (if not more).

Alex's sources are likely right, and it's going to be a long wait. Now that California is in Biden's column, he's at 209 electoral votes, to Trump's 119. Let's assume Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas are going to Trump. Give him Hawaii, Biden needs to find 58 electoral votes somewhere — some combination of Minnesota (10), Arizona (11), Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10), Pennsylvania (20), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), Maine (3), ME-02 (1), NE-02 (1), Georgia (16). He can lose Georgia, but then he needs to win EVERYTHING ELSE if he also lost Pennsylvania.

2 senior Republicans tell me they dont expect a clear result tonight and that it will likely take until the weekend for a clear outcome to emerge

A major Biden donor pointed out something to me significant about these West Coast states coming in. Even though everyone expected them, they change the current EV count. That matters if you have any concern about Trump calling victory early. As he put it, "Am happy to get west coast EV now...will make it harder for Trump to say he won when psychologically Biden now has clear lead for awhile"

Good evening all..joining from Oakland, CA -- hometown of Kamala Harris. Polls have just closed in California, and Dems here are nervous about what they're watching in the rest of the country. Here, no worries. California just projected a win for Biden.

Yeah, Florida is a weird island Nancy. No doubt. But FL, GA, NC, TX are all in (or appearing to head into) the Trump win column after so many people said they were full of only hot air. So maybe they get some more benefit of the doubt?

Biden's campaign was set to outspend Trump on TV by about $180 million, as of two weeks ago.

I just ran the numbers and Trump's campaign, despite their cash troubles, still outspent Biden on Facebook, Google, and YouTube by about $40 million.

I do think, though, Trump aides are also trying to use the momentum of appearing to win Florida to make it seem like the race is over...That's a narrative that suits them, when we still are waiting on lots of data and when Florida really is its own unique (some would say weird) political island. cc: Marc

A Trump donor tells me: "Trump focused on GOTV and Biden blew money on tv and stayed home....Latino and Black men are more for trump than in past cycles and the polling turnout models are wrong. Pollsters missed uneducated white turnout last time. This time Never Trumped GOP are over represented in the polls."

Nancy Charlie Laura One point is even if Biden wins AZ he still needs to win every one of the blue wall states. It gives them far less flexibility than they'd hoped had they taken NC.

Trump coming out confident tonight and Biden waiting until late to see what happens would largely mirror how the last several months have gone, tbh. 

Hearing more and more pessimism from NC Democrats that Biden will not be able to catch up there. Trump won NC by 3.6 points in 2016, so it'll obviously be far closer in 2020, but like I said, more pessimism that Biden won't catch up. (Again, usual caveats, it's not been called yet!)

Steven Agree -- winning Arizona opens the path to victory for Biden. If Biden wins AZ and runs the table in the Rust Belt -- WI/MI/PA -- he wins. NC won't matter.

One thing I will watching is: Does Trump come out and talk tonight and offer remarks and/or declare a win if the election is still this close and millions of ballots in states like Pennsylvania remain uncounted?

Trump campaign officials tells me they're nervous about AZ, but have seen their expectations met or surpassed in terms of day-of GOP turnout so far and are holding out hope for the same in AZ. One campaign adviser I spoke with cited exit polls that showed the economy may be the lead issue for AZ voters – men and women included

Getting at the “red mirage” idea, if we don’t get Atlanta and big GA burbs, and some major blue areas of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania it’s easy to see Trump’s lead holding for now or staying closer than they should end up. Same for GA senate races Charlie 

Steven Yup, Arizona is the swing state that may break for Biden and change the map.

I'm not sure if the advice of California Democrats is a good way to win battlegrounds, David. It looks as if Kamala Harris did little to help Biden in Florida. If the other battlegrounds swing to Trump, it might be time for the party to consider whether Biden's pledge to be the "most progressive" president and run with a California liberal on the ticket might have been wrong for the times. Still, Mulholland has a point. Florida is tough and getting tougher for Democrats.

So far, the night has gone exactly how President Trump needed it to go to have a chance to win a second term. But that might end in Arizona. If Joe Biden's current 9-point lead holds up, it gives Biden a little bit of breathing room, which he hasn't gotten in the results thus far.

if trump wins this, one has to wonder if the infrastructure/field program/registration effort they developed over the last two years made a big difference

One Trump adviser tells me folks starting to feel cautiously optimistic -- though we still have a ways to go. For the past 1.5 weeks, they have started to feel much better about increase in Republican voter registrations, attendance at rallies from people who did not vote Republican or for Trump in 2016 and their ability to turn-out votes.

Mucarsel Powell won in 2018 in good conditions for her, but the Cuban-American vote was ginned up by Trump and Gimenez is a Cuban-American. And the other part of that district is in the Florida Keys, which has a strong Trumpy rebel streak

For all the focus on Florida, I remember not long ago when plenty of Democrats were skeptical about the party's chances there -- and leery of investing. Bob Mulholland, the former longtime DNC member, just texted me this: 'After spending $200 million in Florida in 2016 & 2020, let's forget it til 2028."

Holly My point in mentioning Montgomery County and Philly is that if those places aren't reporting all their votes, the red mirage scenario is still very much in place if the president chose that route.

Natasha I've been waiting to see the results out of Ohio's Delaware County, an exurban county north of Columbus; I viewed it as a kind of indicator species. It's affluent, fast-growing, Republican and didn't have alot of love for Trump in 2016 though it voted for him. If it flipped to Biden, it would have been a sign of real weakness in the exurbs. With 98% in, Trump has 52% -- two points behind his 2016 performance. Biden ran 7 points ahead of Clinton.

Increasing amounts of incoming from the Trump campaign that Florida is not an outlier, that swing-state whites are going to break harder for Trump up north. I have no idea if that's right. But lots of folks said they were crazy about their confidence in winning Florida, and Trump did pretty solidly.

A little Minnesota update here. Nearly 90 percent of precincts are in Anoka County, a big suburban Twin Cities county that went for Trump by about 10 points in 16 before Tim Walz carried in narrowly in 18. I figured if the result was closer to 2018 levels than 2016 levels, it would be good news for Biden. He's losing it by about 1 point, which is squarely in the 2018 lane. That suggests the problem Trump is having in outer-ring suburbs

Charlie that's the kind of news Biden's team is searching for about now. Their numbers in Ohio are tightening, though they're outperforming Clinton in the Cincinnati suburbs.

If Maricopa goes for Biden, that's going to require an even bigger rural turnout for Trump.

Maricopa County has voted Republican in every election since 1948; with 77% of estimated votes reported, Biden is up 54-45.

Trump only narrowly won Maricopa in 2016. This year, his prospects have faded amid Latino population growth and the rising tide of moderate, white, college-educated suburbanites.

Those Arizona numbers show Biden ahead in Maricopa County, home to more than 60 percent of the state's voters.

Big dump of Arizona votes...69% now in

Charlie Very nervous Dems in NC tell me that they're watching Wake, Mecklenburg, Durham extremely closely. Still about 10-15 percent outstanding in those three counties. But, like you said, this is going to be a nail-biter.

With 84% in, North Carolina is looking like a nailbiter. Biden leads Donald Trump 49.7 to 49.1. Both candidates have already surpassed 2016 vote totals

We should call Florida. It is impossible for Biden to catch up unless the Florida Division of Elections website is posting inaccurate information. Trump leads Biden by 381,158 votes out of 10,926,262. The state is reporting that a total of 11,002,345 votes were cast in the election. So there are only 76,083 votes left to count. Even if Biden won 100% of the outstanding votes, he would still lose by 306,075

Charlie In Washington County, for instance, Trump's share is 74 percent as of now, outperforming 2016's numbers where he had 67 percent. BUT as of now, Biden is outperforming Hillary Clinton's numbers in Dane County by 5 percentage points. But again, all absentee may not be in. 

Not sure about that Alex -- we're gonna not have most of New York and California for a bit ... and I imagine Biden will blow the doors off there. Think the final popular vote margin might be a while

Marc have you heard any regrets from Florida Democrats that they didn't try to stand up their ground game until the final weeks. The Biden camp had made a point of not doing in-person door-knocking and campaign events to try to show that they were the more responsible campaign until the last moment.

Popping in with an Ohio thought: Chatting with a GOP strategist, who's spotlighting Delaware County, Ohio. This is a longtime Republican stronghold, suburban Columbus, but with about 90 percent of the vote in there, Trump is just up by .1 percent of a point. Trump won it almost 16 points in 2016. This is a key county for Dems. AND a lot of the big Dem counties in Ohio are still out. That being said, as per usual, still early, still waiting for a lot of outstanding Election Day votes in Ohio, which is likely to trend better for Trump.

National polls heading into Tuesday showed a 10 point Biden lead in some cases. That's not holding up so far

In Texas, Austin's Travis County is blowing out the doors for Biden. He's going to have a much bigger margin out of that county than Clinton.

Natasha Trump campaign has to be pleased with that. Trump underperformed Mitt Romney in those conservative counties in 2016.

Charlie WOW is starting to trickle in and the early percentages are looking strong for Trump.

Nebraska has been called for Trump -- but the question of the single electoral vote attached to its 2nd Congressional District has yet to be decided. Pre-election polls suggested Biden had a lead in the district and was poised to flip that vote away from Trump. Now here's at least one piece of evidence that weighs in Biden's favor -- he's leading Trump in suburban Sarpy County, which is where Clinton got killed. And Sarpy is the Republican part of that district.

Looking at the limited returns we've seen so far, here are a few of my takeaways. --The president's socialism arguments seemed to gain traction in South Florida --Biden is running well in the college counties that have reported, suggesting he's running well with younger voters in those places --Trump's struggle in fast-growing Sun Belt suburbs is very real

Twitter has had to label many of these tweets from the Trump campaign and its supporters given that the state hasn't been officially called.

Trump's team in FL declare victory 

And Trump's lead continues to grow in Florida. It's now 374k, 8k more in 6 minutes.

Yep, Charlie, Trump appears to have held on to and built support among Lumbee Indians and those non-college voters in that county. This is a red-leaning county, but any places where he can improve on his 2016 numbers will be important to hold off losses in suburban counties.

Elena Trump appears to be running much stronger than in 2016 in Robeson County, home to the Lumbee Indians and a county that twice voted for Obama before flipping to Trump.

Yep! But what about how Trump might make up some margins in other rural counties in NC? Still trying to do some fast math to do some comparisons here.

Update on Election Day in Philadelphia from the DA's office here:

"As of 9:00 p.m. on Tuesday, 68 incidents were reported to the Election Task Force and 67 incidents were peacefully resolved. The vast majority of reported incidents involved concerns about unlawful electioneering or interference at polling sites. Most issues involving misunderstandings or miscommunication about voting rules and laws were resolved by Election Task Force prosecutors by phone, and DAO prosecutors and detectives also responded to investigate incidents at polling sites in all six Philadelphia Police divisions. Several incidents will require follow-up by investigators."

Trump's margin in Florida is growing. It's now 366k. It was 295k before. The big blue counties are almost fully reported out. Hard to see this not being a Trump win

Jumping in to add some color from NC: From NC state Rep. Graig Meyer: "It's way closer than we thought it would be. Trump running strong in the mountains. His turnout is high." He noted that he's still watching Wake, Mecklenburg and Durham county come in more fully. (Still 15-20 percent outstanding in those three states.) But it's going to be very, very close in NC.

The Biden campaign offers this updated take on Florida: "We said Florida was going to be close and... it is! We also said we didn't have to win it, and that remains true. We are encouraged by some of the gains, especially in suburbs, that could have national ramifications. We are also doing well in the non-Cuban Hispanic vote, which bodes well elsewhere. There are not places in other states that look like MIami-Dade. And, we have seen throughout this campaign that other Latino voters don’t vote like Cuban-Americans."Marc

In Texas' Tarrant County (Fort Worth), the third-most populous county in the state, Trump leads Biden by just two-tenths of a percentage point with 80% in. Tarrant has voted Republican in all but one election since 1952; George W. Bush won the county by 25 points in 2004 and Mitt Romney won it by 16 in 2012.

Boy, Trump is looking weak in some of those Texas suburban counties

Marc Explain this to a non-Florida Man. Biden looks like he might flip Pinellas and Jacksonville's Duval County. He's getting a bigger margin than Clinton out of Orlando's Orange County. He's running a few percentage points better than Clinton in some of the GOP counties in SW Florida. How bad, or just lackluster, is his performance in Miami-Dade?

Now, we can't say that Miami-Dade is completely responsible for Trump's likely win. If we apply Clinton's margins to Miami-Dade and keep the rest of the race stable, Trump still would be ahead statewide in Florida, by 117k votes, instead of 295k

Judging from two college counties -- Florida's Alachua COunty (U of Florida) and NC's Orange County (UNC) -- Biden is doing better than expected among younger voters. He's running ahead of Clinton's pace in those places and figures to get slightly bigger margins out of those counties.

Basically, this map looks amazingly similar to 2016, with one GIAN exception: Miami-Dade. Trump is doing 22 points better than in 2016.

We're still waiting on a lot of rural counties in NC, but Dems should take some hope from driving up turnout in both Wake and Meck counties in NC.

In Orange County, Trump is doing just 2 points better than he did in 2016.

Natasha North Carolina was the only swing state that Mitt Romney won in 2012, after Barack Obama won it in 2008. Donald Trump did even better than Romney in 2016, and he’s been focused pretty heavily on it with his rallies this fall. A Joe Biden win in Florida could have been a knockout, but if he takes North Carolina, it’s no small deal. 

Natasha Mecklenberg County (Charlotte), another key county for Biden, is also producing a solid result for him. To have any chance of flipping NC from Trump, Biden had to run better than Clinton in Mecklenberg and Wake counties, the two most populous in the state. He's doing that. But a few other things have to happen as well. It's not quite clear to me how well Trump is doing in the exurbs and rural areas.

So I'm searching around Florida's vote, and I see very few signs of hope for Joe Biden and lots of promise for Donald Trump. Miami-Dade's importance here can't be understated. The big blue counties aren't finished with reporting their tallies, but Trump's margin now is 295,000. And at current support rates, it's just very difficult to see where Biden find the votes to overcome that

Biden -- and Dems -- have been far more bullish about NC than FL

Looking at the NC results, Biden is crushing it in one of the two most important counties -- affluent and educated Wake County. To win the state, Biden had run better than Clinton in Wake County and he's on a trajectory to do so

Christopher Or Ohio. Democrats had been lobbying Biden to make an investment there in part because returns were expected early.

Gonna be wild if Texas is closer than Florida.

For example, Holly, one example from Jen O’Malley Dillon, Biden’s campaign manager, that implied they were still counting on Pa could be seen in this quote. “If we just win one state between North Carolina and Georgia, then we could lose Michigan and Florida and still get over 270 electoral votes.”

Holly If Biden loses Fla, North Carolina and Georgia, his so-called greater Midwest certainly includes winning Pennsylvania. That’s a point that they made. Losing Pa would seem to require picking up something big elsewhere.

Christopher On the expectation-setting remarked upon earlier from the Biden campaign about Florida, what are we to make of the fact that the campaign told me this a few days ago about Pennsylvania — that "we can win without Pennsylvania," though they didn't think they'd need to?

Report that just went out from the Pennsylvania Election Protection Coalition on issues today in the state:

"Among the issues: Several polling places opened late. High turnout meant long lines, which remain active at some locations. (Any eligible voter in line by 8 p.m. is permitted to vote.) Voters spoiled mail-in ballots at high rates, and some poll workers were confused about how to process those ballots. Non-English-speaking residents faced language access issues at a few polling locations. Some voters expressed concern about imposing constables, others reported feeling harassed. Some precincts reported mechanical problems or ran out of supplies.   While all of these issues are concerning, none of them are too far out of the ordinary for issues that arise during any normal election year — and this year was far from normal, with many expecting the worst in terms of potential disruptions and possible conflict."

This is not a call. But I do not see the math for Joe Biden. It looks as if this election is obeying the same rules as other Florida elections: the candidate whose party out-votes the other party wins.

Hey Charlie! Polls closed at 8 p.m. The AP has already called the state for Biden and Sen. Booker. They were never in question

Hey mfriedman NJ polls just closed, right? What are the big races you're watching there?

Both campaigns have armies of attorneys at the ready for PA and other states. A lengthy post-Election court battle is the scenario Biden's camp has so fiercely tried to avoid by expanding their map to 17 states.

Mail-in numbers in PA:

• 1,658,804 cast by registered Democrats
• 599,494 cast by registered Republicans
• 284,931 cast by those registered as no affiliation/third party/other
• About 548,000 mail-in ballots have not been returned as of now — but if they are postmarked by Election Day (or there is not a "preponderance of evidence" they were sent after) and received within three days, the state Supreme Court said they must be counted
 

Christopher It seemed reminiscent of the Biden team's warnings that Iowa didn't matter. If the polls look bad for him don't worry about it!

To echo Natasha’s point in terms of Biden camp’s expectations setting in recent days, it’s possible they saw this coming. Lots of their comments have focused on how Biden doesn’t need to win Florida. They seemed very attuned to how the election is covered tonight and how Democrats would take the news. 

30,000+ mail ballots — a teeny tiny fraction of the 2.5 million received as of this morning in the state — were just reported in Pennsylvania. We may be entering the brief "blue mirage" portion of the night, where Biden deceptively looks like he's doing well because counties first report the mail ballots they've been counting all day, and Biden supporters disproportionately voted by mail.

I feel like my job this entire night might be explaining why #nothingmatters in PA.

In Arizona, it doesn't mean Biden can't win with a white coalition as well, but recent polling in Arizona, including final NYT/Siena poll did not show Trump breaking through his 2016 numbers with Latinos in the state.

To jump in here and zoom out a bit for Team Biden: the last two days they have given the impression that Florida would be tight and seemed to be setting up expectations that it could very well go to Trump. Seemed their messaging was to soften the blow if Florida went red early in the night.

For white, working class voters, Ohio is certainly one to watch.

Observation of Miami-Dade and Biden’s underperformance there compared with Clinton is it’s difficult at the moment to extrapolate what this means for Latino voters in states like Nevada, Arizona and Texas. Could be a warning sign, but also could be unique to Trump’s efforts in Fla, with Cuban, Venezuelan and Puerto Rican voters. 

As we're seeing these Florida numbers, a flashback to what Bernie Sanders told me in September about Biden's underperformance with Latino voters: “I think that the Biden campaign has got to go beyond establishment people, go to grassroots Latino leaders who are in contact with young people, with the communities, and help fund their activities. But I think there is a likelihood that if that is not done, turnout in the Latino community could be lower than we would like and it could result in Biden losing some very key states."

It's a few minutes before polls close in the Panhandle of Florida and the Democrat is up by just 0.4 percentage points. Normally, this would be the last time you see the state shaded blue because, after 7 Central time, the Panhandle Republican counties would provide an extra dose of red to flip the color of the map. But that's normally. Let's see how normal this is.

More Florida: With 91% in, Biden lead 51-47 in Jacksonville's Duval County. That would be a flipped county; Trump won it 48-47 and Romney won it in 2012, 51-48

Some of those blue states that Trump had focused on early, including New Mexico, Colorado and Virginia, didn't get much attention in recent weeks

Orlando's Orange County also looking solid for Dems. Biden is running 50k votes ahead of Clinton, with 93% in

Polls close in 15 minutes in Pennsylvania.

But I can't stress this enough: Biden's win would be unique for two reasons. 1) Democratic voters were outvoted by Republicans 2) The Miami-Dade margins are the stuff of a losing Democratic campaign that needs far more votes out of here

GOP strategist just made this point to me: If Florida goes red in 2020, while Georgia, NC, Texas are seen as more/just as competitive for Dems, it could totally change Florida's role in presidential politics. It's big, expensive and complicated, so what if Dems stop challenging it and focus on other SEC-type states?

Biden appears well ahead of Clinton's pace in Jacksonville's Duval County. Went narrowly for Trump in 2016 and Biden is at 54% with 75% of votes in. What do you make of that Marc

I'm joining live from Miami as well, where we just got early numbers for Miami-Dade County. Right now, we're seeing Biden 54 to Trump 45. The early look at this shows Trump really has made inroads with Cubans and other Latinos down here.

Now for the bad news for Biden: Miami-Dade County is not breaking his way the way it needs. With the total early vote, Biden is only ahead by 9 in a county that Clinton won by nearly 30

Ok. Coming back up for air here in Florida. We've got some preliminary results, mainly from early and absentee votes and Biden is doing well, as expected.

Steven This is absolutely a function of how different voting has been this year -- the huge volume of mail voting, the split between Democrats and Republicans in terms of voting by mail versus on Election Day, inconsistencies in how different jurisdictions process their mail votes -- it makes figuring out what's going on in early returns a nightmare. And to be clear, the people who call races for the networks and AP are certified geniuses. But I expect many of them might be a lot more conservative this year.

Some interesting divergence in the race calls so far: CNN and NBC called Indiana for Trump, but neither the AP nor Fox has (which means we haven't yet). Fox and the AP have called Kentucky for Trump, but the other networks say it's too early. Fox and the AP have also called Vermont for Biden; Fox alone called Virginia for Biden.

Sometimes these early calls are clues as how the night is going to go. This is a confusing mixed bag, so there's no clarity here yet.

Anita And in a sign of how important PA is to the race, Biden tried to fend off Trump's attacks over fracking over and over. During Biden's final stop in the state yesterday at a drive-in rally in Pittsburgh, following his barnstorm of the state with his running mate Kamala Harris and their spouses, he said for the zillionth time that he doesn't want to ban fracking.

Holly Trump's team really focused on Biden's fracking comments for the last couple weeks, convinced that they could make all the difference in Pennsylvania. They had ads, social media, conference calls, press releases, you name it on, all on fracking. They think even if it moved a few votes it could be enough to win the state.

Polls are now closed in the Eastern Time Zone of FL, they'll be open for another hour in Central.

 If Biden wins FL tonight, it will be unique. He would be the 1st top-of-the-ticket candidate to carry the state even though his party had a lower share of ballots cast than the opponent’s party. Bottom line: when more Democrats vote than Republicans, the Democrat has won Florida. When more Republicans vote than Democrats, the Republican has won.

More Republicans are voting than Democrats in Florida. As of about 6:30, the GOP’s share of vote was 1.8 percentage points higher than the Democrats, known as an R+1.8 electorate. It was R+0.6 in 2016 when Trump won by 1.2 points.

We don’t know the final composition of the electorate. So it could be higher or lower than R+1.8.

To win like this, Biden would need a good share of independents (as much as a 7-point margin) or more GOP voters for him than Dem voters for Trump. Or a combo of both. Both are possible.

Vote totals are FINALLY coming in. So I’m checking out.

Anita Trump aides were claiming high turnout in Republican areas in Luzerne, which is one of the three counties that flipped from supporting Obama to Trump in 2016.

Sen. Bob Casey — and local Democratic Party leaders — also said there was massive turnout in the Philadelphia suburbs, which would be a win for Biden.

You have to beware with these reports, though. During Election Day in 2016, Democrats reported good turnout in Philadelphia, and Clinton actually pulled out almost as many raw votes out of Philly as Obama in 2012. But what they didn't realize was that Trump was surging in rural parts of the state and flipping some swing counties like the ones mentioned above.

What I want to know is the number out of Philly -- what margin is Joe Biden taking out of the state's largest city? While Hillary Clinton dominated in Philadelphia, winning 82%, she only took a 475,000-vote edge out of the city, compared Barack Obama’s 492,000 vote advantage in 2012. That made a difference in a state that was ultimately decided by roughly 45,000 votes.

Let's continue our tour around the Electoral College. When do we get to talk some PENNSYLVANIA :eagles:? After all, it's only at the center of the political universe tonight.

One thing I've thought about today in Georgia: Hillary Clinton lost the state by about 230,000 votes in 2016. Nearly 800,000 new voters have registered since 2018. That could be enough to put Biden over the top, depending on which way they lean.

Charlie, Look no further than who's shown up there in the last week! Obama, Biden, Harris... and Trump. It's clearly a battleground. And the stakes are so high: Two Senate races, a state House that could flip, several competitive House races.

Speaking of surprise swing states this year, there's Georgia. I still have a hard time believing the Democratic nominee has a shot of picking up its 16 electoral votes, but there's plenty of evidence to suggest that it's in play.

Greetings from downtown Washington, where streets are shutting down a few blocks away from me near the White House. I just got off a conference call with Trump advisers Bill Stepien and Jason Miller. Their argument right now is that Dems cannibalized their voters during the early vote period and then, without a well-funded ground game, scrambled at the end to turn out voters on Election Day. The Trump campaign further contended that they were effective in turning out voters today like Florida

Charlie That's right it's a genuine battleground and voters in the state are not used to it. Many complained about all the ads; Phoenix was the top media market for Biden in the final six weeks of the election. Democrats and Republicans in Arizona both say Trump accelerated Arizona turning purple. Add a growing Latino population, shifting attitudes among white suburban voters and migration from California and you have a new battleground.

Yes to Elena's point, I think map makers are going to have their work cut out for them during 2021 redistricting in places like Texas or Orange County in California if Biden wins tonight. It will be hard to determine how these suburban voters perform in a post-Trump era

Another key Sun Belt state tonight is Arizona. Laura You've spent alot of time there and written some super smart stories about it. Why is that suddenly in play for Joe Biden? I mean, that's a state that's only voted once for a Dem nominee (Clinton in 96) since 1952.

Charlie Elena -- I talked to a couple of Democratic operatives who said even if Texas flips tonight, they think it would be a one-off and not something sustainable. Basically they think Trump is such a draw to vote against and that won't be the case every time.

It's been interesting to watch the Biden campaign with regard to Texas. They dropped it as a possible expansion state early on, noting it was a pipe dream. For the sake of down ballot races, there was some pressure from Democrats within the state for Biden to invest some time there even if he couldn't turn it blue.

A competitive presidential race, tons of hot House races, a competitive Senate race, state leg races...what is going on there?

How have we gone so long without talking about Texas?

Well, aside from Susan Collins and the fate of the electoral vote awarded by Maine's 2nd District, New England looks pretty boring tonight. The industrial Midwest, the South, the Sun Belt is where all the interesting action appears to be, at least at the presidential level.

And we just heard this afternoon, from local reporters on the ground, that Vermont's GOP Gov. Phil Scott voted for Joe Biden.

But Maine is an unusual shade of blue -- 8 of the state's 16 counties voted for Barack Obama twice and then flipped for Trump in 2016.

Stephanie Meanwhile, Collins goes into Election Night never revealing whether she voted for Trump for a second term.

Hi, everyone, joining a bit late from a neighborhood in DC we’ve taken to calling “Hill East.” One of the prime things I’m looking for tonight is the messaging around whatever results we have this evening. Riffing off what Anita said, there’s a real worry circulating among election experts that if Trump or even down ballot candidates say that they’ve won before races have been called by professional shot callers at a handful of news organization, that idea will spread and take hold in a way that could lead to chaos (on a day that has been largely absent of it). I generally cover tech, and the social media firms have said in recent days that they are on high-alert for so-called premature declarations – and they’re prepared to quickly label anything to that effect they see on their networks. I’m on watch to see how that plays out.

Good evening from Miami, FLA. I'm watching three things: Florida, Florida, Florida. We're watching turnout and we can do it almost in real-time. As of the 5 p.m. update, Republicans have been dominating the day in turnout, as expected. They began the day in a hole to Democrats in total ballots cast, with the Dems ahead by 115,000 early and absentee ballots cast, a margin of 1.3 percentage points. Republicans then stormed the polls today and led Democrats by about 184,000 ballots cast, or 1.7 points. Biden wants to keep that margin at 2 or below. Not every Democrat is voting for Biden nor ever Republican for Trump, so we're using these raw ballot numbers as a sign of intensity. And right now, that's with Republicans. Now, 24% of the electorate are no independent party affiliation/third party voters, so it's anyone's guess how they break. Nearly every poll says Biden leads with them, but the question is how much. Biden probably needs to win independents by 7 points if the composition of the electorate continues to look like this. Polls close in an hour and 15 minutes in most of Florida, and Democrats tend to vote a little later in the day, so they could eat a bit back into Republican margins. The last Florida polls close at 7 p.m. Central/8 p.m. Eastern in the GOP-leaning Panhandle, so there's time for more Republican votes, too

Greetings, Charlie, from about 20 feet away from you here in the socially distanced POLITICO newsroom in Arlington. I'm going to be watching for what we can say at the end of the night about the presidential race and the battle for the Senate. We've been talking about the three different outcomes tonight without decisions in some key states : A Biden win (possible), a Trump win (less possible, based on the electoral math) and the still-undecided conclusion (probably most likely). But there are varying degrees of "too early to call": Scenarios in which we probably know who won, which would make it more difficult for the trailing candidate to argue that the process moving forward is unfair, or one in which there's real drama about the continued vote count in the states still working their way through mail and provisional ballots. That outcome could get very messy, but we shouldn't assume solely ending the night without a winner will necessarily be that messy.

Good evening from Philadelphia! I'm totally zeroed in on Pennsylvania tonight. Election officials were not permitted by law to begin counting mail-in ballots in the state until today, so we may not know the presidential election results here for days. Then again, Sen. Bob Casey told me he thought the race could potentially be called in Pennsylvania tonight. So first, I'm looking to see what exactly we learn tonight and how quickly local governments across the state are able to process mail ballots. I just got off the phone with the City Commissioners office in Philadelphia, and they told me that all the machines that process mail ballots are up and running and that things are going smoothly.

Secondly, I'm looking to see if we get a sense tonight of how many "naked ballots" there are in the state. You might have heard of this: In Pennsylvania, if you don't submit your mail ballot with the proper envelope, it's called a naked ballot — and it will get tossed out. Earlier this year, one election official said the rule could result in upwards of 100,000 mail-in ballots being thrown out. Democrats, including Biden's campaign, spent a ton of money educating voters about this rule to prevent that. So will that number end up being less than 100,000, or not?

Good evening from the great Midwest. I’m just dying to know whether Team Biden can flip one of the tougher states on their map like AZ, NC or GA. The Biden campaign seems least confident about Florida but seemed to feel pretty good about reclaiming the Blue Wall. I’m also keeping an eye on Wisconsin, a battleground close to my heart (and to my home). Democrats there are feeling good because they ran up such a strong lead in early voting.

Hi everyone from D.C.! I'm watching to see what happens in Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin and the Upper Midwest states which seems to be the most crucial for a potential Trump victory given the recent polling and his path to winning in 2016....I'm also watching to see what emerges as the chief issue for voters: the economy (which historically has favored Trump), or his administration's handling of Covid (where he has been far weaker in the polls). And then, like Anita, I am watching to see how POTUS reacts. If we do not know the outcome of the election tonight, is he cool, or does he try to claim victory regardless?

Hi from DC! We made it y'all! I agree with Elena; we should be able to choose "every single thing!"

But my eyes are on Florida because it will be key to letting us know how long this night might be. Republicans are feeling really good that the GOP "day of" numbers today are exactly where they needed them to be even with all of the early voting we saw in the state. Florida is a must-win state for President Trump (not Biden) and it's a state that is a small United States in its own right aka lots of different voting groups we'll see be important nationwide. It will also be a state that might get called early.

Happy Election Day, everyone! Tonight, I'm watching Donald Trump. What will he do? How will he react? If it looks like the race is headed one way or another, does he proclaim victory or defeat? Or does he keep this election going for days or weeks longer? I've been covering Trump for four years now - even since I was a witness to his meeting in the Oval Office with then President Barack Obama - and I don't make any predictions. Anything could happen tonight and I would not be surprised!

Hey, all! Reporting live from my couch, which is where I’ve been since … Super Tuesday. (Remember Super Tuesday?) To your question, Charlie, is ‘everything’ too broad of an answer? Ok, fine, I’ll specify slightly more. I got to cover the 2018 House midterms, and the themes for that election (suburban flight from GOP, deeper party polarization in suburban/urban vs. rural/exurban, gender gap between the two parties) are now, likely, to come into fuller view. For that reason, I’m keeping a close eye on the Sunbelt, especially Georgia and NC, for signs of what started in 2018 is now extending into 2020.

Two counties where we might be able to see that these trends converge are: Gwinnett County in Georgia and Wilson County, NC. Starting with Gwinnett, this northern Atlanta suburban county used to be solidly Republican territory. Now, it’s one of those quintessential 2020 examples of a place that’s booming, diversifying and turning away from Trump. If Democrats can run up a big, big score here, that’s how Biden manages to pull off a victory in Georgia, a state that hasn’t voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1992.

Wilson County, a suburban/exurban county in eastern NC, voted for Clinton in 2016, but barely. This is a spot where if Republicans can dig up some new non-college educated white voters, they might show up here. The Trump campaign recognized that – sending VP Mike Pence here last week to rally support. If Republicans can flip this county, that’s a very good sign that they’ll be able to hold on to NC.

Good evening from DC! I’m watching Arizona tonight. (I just returned from a quick trip to the state.) A Democratic presidential candidate hasn’t won there since Bill Clinton in 1996 and tonight its genuinely in play for Joe Biden. Aware of the stakes, President Trump and VP Pence made swings through the state in the final week while Biden only visited the state once in the general election. We could also know the result tonight and if Biden flips that state, Trump’s road to 270 becomes a lot harder. Keep your eyes on Maricopa County. I’ll also be keeping an eye on where key voting blocs — Black voters, Latinos, white women — land.