ISIS threats loom over the Afghanistan evacuation

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The threat ISIS poses to the Kabul airport has come sharply into view over the last 24 hours.

Our own LARA SELIGMAN, ANDREW DESIDERIO and Alex exclusively reported last night on a new Pentagon assessment which informed lawmakers that “[t]errorist threats are now jeopardizing the massive American evacuation effort underway in Afghanistan’s capital.” The ISIS franchise in Afghanistan, known as ISIS-K, “is targeting airport gates and military and commercial aircraft evacuating people from the capital city,” according to conversations with four people in the know.

And this morning, CNN’s JIM SCIUTTO and TIM LISTER reported increasing concerns around the airport stem from “a very specific threat stream” from ISIS-K — namely, attacks on the roughly 10,000 waiting outside the airport gates for a flight. “Concerns increased after more than 100 prison inmates loyal to the ISIS affiliate in Afghanistan escaped from two prisons near Kabul as the Taliban advanced on the Afghan capital,” they wrote.

These don’t seem to be idle threats: The terrorist group has a demonstrated ability to launch attacks even if its numbers are depleted, and it’s clear many in the Defense Department are taking them seriously. “They’ve been afraid of ISIS-K attacks the last few days at the airport,” a defense official told NatSec Daily about the current thinking among Pentagon leadership.

The White House hasn’t minimized the potential threat in public statements. On Monday, national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN told reportersthat “[w]hat is present in Afghanistan right now, to our forces at the airport, is a serious threat from ISIS-K.” And yesterday, President JOE BIDEN used the group’s plotting as a reason not to extend the military evacuation mission beyond Aug. 31.

“Every day we’re on the ground is another day we know that ISIS-K is seeking to target the airport and attack both U.S. and allied forces and innocent civilians,” he said in a speech updating the public on the situation in Kabul.

All this made NatSec Daily wonder: Why would ISIS-K attack the airport, especially if it might prompt the United States to keep forces in Afghanistan a little longer?

COLIN CLARKE, director of policy and research at The Soufan Group intelligence and security consultancy firm, has a guess. “The thinking is likely that the U.S. is already leaving, and what better way to generate some momentum and propaganda value than launching a high-profile attack against U.S. and other Western forces,” he told us, adding a strike might boost the overall group’s morale when the ISIS core in Iraq and Syria is still reeling.

He also pointed to a tweet by CHARLIE WINTER, a senior research fellow at the International Center for the Study of Radicalisation in London, who noted ISIS-K hasn’t launched an assault in 11 days. That’s odd, since the group reported conducting 19 times more strikes in June 2021 than in June 2020.

Of course, no one except ISIS-K knows why, but Clarke says the operational pause “makes you wonder if they are not gearing up for something pretty massive.”

The Inbox

TROUBLING SCENES IN KABUL: Two people tell Alex and our own LARA SELIGMAN that the Taliban in recent hours have attacked and killed Afghans outside the Kabul airport’s Abbey Gate. One of the people said a minor was stabbed there earlier. A deeply disturbing video posted by Military Times’ HOWARD ALTMAN seems to show the Taliban murdering a special immigrant visa applicant (Caution: We repeat, viewer discretion strongly advised).

Another person familiar with knowledge of the situation said Taliban members are beating people at the Ministry of Interior, the location where U.S. officials have instructed some evacuees to go in advance of an escort to the airport. The Taliban were “beating [people] regardless of women, children pregnant! They were even shooting [people] in feet, hands [and] back!”

“The Taliban would take the passport of people who had the visa and tore it for them,” this person continued, adding that a pregnant woman “fell so badly that she was about to lose her child.” The woman successfully escaped the location, however.

Another person in contact with people on the ground told Seligman about the situation outside the airport. “Gates are bottling up massively right now in real time. Multiple gates that we have used are closed,” this person told her. “We were just trying to get some American citizens through West Gate and got verified confirmation that Taliban are now at West Gate so we are pulling those folks out. This is becoming a massive dangerous bottleneck situation.”

Further, people in Kabul tell us evac planes can’t stay on the ground too long because they need to make room for other aircraft coming in. One person said incoming planes are told by air traffic control to turn around because there’s no room on the tarmac. This is yet another data point for why many planes are now taking off without a full passenger load. There simply isn’t enough time to board everyone, even if they get through the byzantine clearing process and Taliban checkpoints.

However, the airlift overall has evacuated around 88,000 people since the end of July, including over 82,000 people since Kabul fell on Aug. 14.

U.N. TELLS KABUL STAFF TO KEEP CALM AND CARRY ON: Some pretty jarring news at our sister newsletter, “Global Translations,” per our own RYAN HEATH: The United Nations’ top security official for Afghanistan wrote in a memo that staff should play nice with the Taliban, even during the militants’ door-to-door searches.

“Stay calm. Your calm and positive interaction with armed elements or de facto authorities, should remain clear, honest and confident,” reads the memo Ryan got a look at. Female staff “may wish to consider reducing visibility,” including by not having women answer the door to armed Taliban members.

A leaked U.N. security document Reuters obtained shows the Taliban are attacking and threatening the global body’s staff. “The Taliban stopped an Afghan United Nations staff member as he tried to reach Kabul airport on Sunday. They searched his vehicle and found his U.N. identification. Then they beat him,” the report begins.

VEEP KEEPS HITTING CHINA ON SOUTHEAST ASIA TOUR: Speaking with Vietnamese officials Wednesday, Vice President KAMALA HARRIS offered Washington’s support for helping Hanoi bolster its maritime security against Beijing’s aggression in the South China Sea and suggested more frequent visits by U.S. warships to the region, per Reuters’ NANDITA BOSE.

“We need to find ways to pressure, raise the pressure … on Beijing to abide by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, and to challenge its bullying and excessive maritime claims,” Harris said in a meeting with Vietnamese President NGUYEN XUAN PHUC. She previously singled out China in a speech in Singapore on Tuesday.

USS Theodore Roosevelt visited Vietnam last year, becoming the second American aircraft carrier to visit the country since the 1970s.

MORNING DEFENSE MUST-READ: Roughly $6 billion that was either approved or will be approved for Afghan military training is now up for grabs after Kabul’s collapse last week, and the jockeying among lawmakers to find a new home for that money has begun. Read more from our own CONNOR O’BRIEN, LEE HUDSON and PAUL MCLEARY, and subscribe now to the revamped Morning Defense for all the latest NDAA news on Capitol Hill.

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Blowing Up

BIDEN AND BENNETT’S AWKWARD MEETING: Israeli Prime Minister NAFTALI BENNETT told The New York Times he opposes America’s return to the Iran deal, will continue covert attacks on the Islamic Republic and plans to expand settlements in the West Bank. That follows previous statements where he promised neither to annex more territory nor allow a Palestinian state while he’s in charge.

Bennett’s fiery interview — his first with a non-Israeli news outlet — comes one day before his scheduled White House visit with Biden. It’s a clear opening salvo before meeting his U.S. counterpart, who has made a return to the nuclear pact a top foreign policy priority while opposing further settlements in the Palestinian territory.

The leaders’ stances could produce a tense exchange on policy when they come face-to-face in Washington. But Biden has long backed Israel, regardless of who is in charge of the country, and both he and Bennett will undoubtedly play nice even away from cameras.

“President Biden will highlight his lifelong friendship with Israel, the unparalleled bond between the United States and Israel, and the United States’ unwavering commitment to Israel’s security and self-defense,” a senior administration official told NatSec Daily. “We know where the Israeli government stands on the JCPOA. That’s an area of difference between our two governments, but not a source of conflict.”

MERKEL’S PARTY TRAILS IN HISTORIC POLL: For the first time in 15 years, Germany’s center-left Social Democrats (SPD) are leading German Chancellor ANGELA MERKEL’s center-right Christian Democrats (CDU) in the polls. The country’s federal election is only one month away, but the SPD came in at 23 percent support, while the CDU dropped to 22 percent and the Greens also fell slightly to 18 percent.

That’s good news for SPD candidate OLAF SCHOLZ, who has his best chance yet of leading Germany and upsetting frontrunner ARMIN LASCHET of the CDU. Laschet’s numbers started plummeting after a video showed him laughing while visiting a German town in mourning after a massive flood.

Keystrokes

U.S. APPROVES HUAWEI LICENSES: The Commerce Department has granted licenses to American companies selling chips to Huawei, the blacklisted Chinese telecommunications giant, per Reuters’ KAREN FREIFELD. That’s a surprising development, seeing as trade restrictions imposed by the last administration and enforced by the current one have blocked Huawei from purchasing U.S.-made materials.

But according to Reuters, Biden’s team has in recent weeks and months approved Huawei’s purchases of chips for vehicles from American companies, ensuring millions flow into the Chinese firm’s coffers. “Auto chips are generally not considered sophisticated, lowering the bar for approval,” Freifeld wrote.

When reached by NatSec Daily, a Commerce spokesperson said the department “cannot comment on license applications approved or denied for transactions involving Huawei,” citing a provision in the Export Control Reform Act of 2018. However, the spokesperson insisted Commerce will continue to “restrict Huawei’s access to commodities, software, or technology for activities that could harm U.S. national security and foreign policy interests.”

Still, some on the Hill — particularly Republicans — are already upset about this news. “Over the past week, we’ve seen Team Biden go from surrendering to the Taliban to appeasing the Chinese Community Party,” a House GOP staffer told NatSec Daily. “The hits just keep on coming.”

Rep. MIKE ROGERS (R-Ala.), the ranking member of the House Armed Services Committee, released a statement featuring a rhetorical question: “Is there a dictator or despot that this administration won’t surrender to, appease, or enrich?”

FATE OF AFGHANISTAN’S NETWORKS UNCERTAIN UNDER TALIBAN RULE: Potential efforts by the Taliban to shut down Afghanistan’s communications networks could significantly complicate surveillance of the militant group by the United States, as well as the monitoring of terrorists the new Afghan government may harbor, per Breaking Defense’s BRAD D. WILLIAMS.

Although the Taliban reportedly destroyed much critical electronic infrastructure over the course of their incursion in recent months, their officials also have relied on the internet for public messaging and may not be served by Afghanistan ultimately “going dark.”

“Notably, late last week, the Taliban’s official websites, in multiple languages, all disappeared offline,” Williams wrote. “It’s unclear right now who might have been behind the website takedowns, but it’s unlikely the Taliban shuttered its own sites, given their recent value in spreading propaganda.”

The Complex

SPACECOM UP AND RUNNING: U.S. Space Command is now operational, two years after its resurrection as the nation’s 11th combatant command, per Military Times’ NATHAN STROUT.

“U.S. Space Command’s [initial operational capability] milestone is more strategically focused. It’s less about fielding a specific weapons system capability or even reaching a specific set of criteria than it is about capability to produce effects now,” Gen. JAMES DICKINSON, the SPACECOM chief, said during the Space Symposium on Tuesday. “It’s about how we took the capability we had on day one and used it as a foundation to develop structurally, functionally, culturally, to meet the nation’s space domain imperatives.”

SPACECOM has taken over the space duties once executed by U.S. Strategic Command, but it still has some growing to do. In its third year, Dickinson says his charge will become fully operational, meaning a completely staffed HQ, a detailed campaign plan and more.

On the Hill

KIRBY SCOLDS LAWMAKERS FOR KABUL VISIT: Pentagon spokesperson JOHN KIRBY publicly reprimanded Reps. PETER MEIJER (R-Mich.) and SETH MOULTON (D-Mass.) for their secret trip to Hamid Karzai International Airport on Tuesday, even suggesting Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN was personally angered by the unauthorized excursion.

“We were not aware of this visit, and we are obviously not encouraging VIP visits to a very tense, dangerous and dynamic situation at that airport and inside Kabul, generally,” Kirby told reporters at a news briefing Wednesday. “And the secretary, I think, would have appreciated the opportunity to have had a conversation before the visit took place.”

Kirby also indicated the lawmakers’ presence was disruptive and unnecessary: “To say that there wasn’t a need to flex and to alter the day’s flow — including the need to have protection for these members of Congress — that wouldn’t be a genuine thing for me to assert. I mean, there was certainly a pull-off of the kinds of missions we were trying to do to be able to accommodate that visit.”

Broadsides

AFGHAN COMMANDER DEFENDS TROOPS AFTER TALIBAN TAKEOVER: SAMI SADAT, a three-star general in the Afghan National Army, authored a blistering New York Times op-ed Wednesday criticizing Biden’s rhetoric toward Afghan troops and arguing they were “betrayed by politics and presidents.”

“It’s true that the Afghan Army lost its will to fight. But that’s because of the growing sense of abandonment by our American partners and the disrespect and disloyalty reflected in Mr. Biden’s tone and words over the past few months,” Sadat wrote.

The commander acknowledged the Afghan army “had its problems,” including “cronyism” and “bureaucracy.” But he also maintained that its troops “ultimately stopped fighting because our partners already had.”

Transitions

— FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: Biden will nominate CARLA KOPPELL as assistant administrator for development, democracy and innovation at the U.S. Agency for International Development. Koppell, currently a senior adviser at Georgetown’s School of Foreign Service, previously served as USAID’s chief strategy officer and the agency’s inaugural senior coordinator for gender equality and women’s empowerment.

— SECOND, FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: CHLOE HIMMEL is now chief of staff for legislative affairs at the Department of Homeland Security, our own DANIEL LIPPMAN reports. She most recently was senior government affairs analyst for intelligence, cyber, and technology at Lockheed Martin and worked in legislative affairs at DHS in the Obama administration.

What to Read

— BEN SMITH, The New York Times: “How Mexico Helped The Times Get Its Journalists Out of Afghanistan”

— JOE PARKINSON, AVA SASANI and DREW HINSHAW, The Wall Street Journal: “Afghanistan’s Falling Man: The 17-Year-Old Soccer Star Who Plunged From a U.S. Military Jet”

— MARYN MCKENNA, Wired: “Afghanistan Almost Beat Polio. Now the Future Is Uncertain”

Tomorrow Today

— Biden meets with Bennett at the White House: The two leaders “will discuss critical issues related to regional and global security, including Iran,” as well as “efforts to advance peace, security, and prosperity for Israelis and Palestinians and the importance of working towards a more peaceful and secure future for the region,” according to the White House.

— The fourth day of VP Harris’ trip to Southeast Asia: In Hanoi, Harris will meet with civil society representatives; participate in an embassy lease signing event; and meet with staff and families of the U.S. Embassy Hanoi. En route home, Harris will deliver remarks and meet service members at Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam in Honolulu, Hawaii.

— The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9 a.m.: “Nothing is Impossible: America’s Reconciliation with Vietnam”

— The Foreign Policy Research Institute, 10 a.m.: “African views on U.S.-China competition in Africa”

— The Brookings Institution, 11 a.m.: “The long game: China’s grand strategy to displace American order”

— The Hudson Institute, 12 p.m.: “A Conversation with Admiral CHARLES RICHARD”

— The George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs, 4 p.m.: “Afghanistan: What Comes Next?”

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