First polls close at 7 p.m. ET on Tuesday. Bookmark this page for live analysis on both Senate runoffs.

2021 Georgia Runoffs: Live Updates & Analysis

How's everyone doing? What are you watching for tonight?

Having spent ~35% of the last week in a rental car

You beat me to it Steven

Zach Not sure

Republicans are at roughly 700 votes there, to about 550 for each Democrat

What’s the over/under on a Fulton Snafu?

No, I do not. There's 159 counties in Georgia

I have a feeling these races won't be the blowout that the Heisman was this year

When you run out of TV airtime, you have to find another way to spend all this money.

(In Webster County, Ossoff ran better than Warnock. Take that, James!)

Zach Knocking me over with your data speed

If he were a GIF, Sterling would be Burning Elmo

I'm still waiting on 5,000 words on Gabriel Sterling, Charlie.

Thank you for spending your evening with us.

Yeah Andrew, they’ve got so much money to burn that they’re flying planes with banners

Marc All in all, Republicans would take that. Good enough for the majority

oh yeah, James

I hope your mother canceled her TV subscription Teresa!

Zach: she's very into Netflix!

David Perdue "beat" Jon Ossoff in November, 49.7-47.9%.

Not even trying Charlie

You edited the story, Charlie. This is your fault

You abuse is fuel Charlie

During the November elections, Perdue escaped being defined. I wonder if the same happened during the runoff

Democrats estimate their candidates lead by about 200,000 early votes. Republicans say it’s closer to 130k Charlie

I almost included it in the preview we published this morning.

We are quickly approaching the 2 million vote mark

which would be approximately the halfway point

And of course, if the races are within 0.5 percentage points, we could see a recount drag things even further, as we did in Georgia for the presidential race

Elena that makes sense. Also, Loeffler isn't a native Southerner, and for some folks, that makes a difference.

I'm looking at how he performs with Black voters in places like Savannah, Columbus, even Valdosta to prove whether it's really an issue.

Over a million votes in and reported, now ... so we're a quarter(ish) of the way there

It makes no sense that Election Day results are posted first 

The bulk of Mail ballots arrive BEFORE Election Day

If Florida was decided by 11,000 votes, I'm fairly confident we wouldn't have known the winner on Nov. 3

OMG. The polls have only been closed for 30 minutes and Marc is already unspooling his election administration grievances.

Surely there's a button to mute Marc, right?

Oh thats good James

Took you 34 minutes to attack me, Charlie. You’re slipping

Maya I'm curious to see how cities outside Atlanta do, too.

Another good point, Elena

To James’s point about Black voter turnout, if African-American ballots are 30% of the share of vote, it’s an indicator of a likely Democratic win

Agreed Charlie. It helps that he's an Atlanta native!

Zach I’m sure somewhere on Twitter someone is hyperventilating based on a few percent reporting in Fulton County

Exit polls, Charlie and Zach. We should focus on those.

Democrats needed that high early turnout and the stronger percentage of Black voters in early voting to stand a chance tonight. They did both those things, which is why we're looking at such close races

Perdue's big enemy was the clock. He just played it out.

Charlie I'm pretty sure it won't take a lot to get people hyperventilating tonight...

Excedrine and Monster, Steven

Marc Just pacing myself

So with a quarterish of the vote in, Democrats lead by 9 points

Hello and welcome to POLITICO’s Georgia Senate runoff live chat. The polls are now closed and we’ll be here for the next few hours talking about the results in the two elections that will decide control of the Senate.

So, James, you’ve been covering this 24-7 since Election Day and are also in Georgia at the moment. How did we get to a point where control of the Senate came down to two runoff elections... in the same state?

Also, congrats to the teeny tiny Webster County. The Georgia's secretary of state office is showing they've reported all their results!

Looks like everyone is expecting a tight one tonight. So what do we know about the early vote, either anecdotally or through available data?

There are two Senate seats on the ballot today and Democrats must win both to gain a Senate majority. (If that were to happen, the Senate would be evenly divided 50-50 and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris would serve as the tie-breaking vote for Democrats.) Republicans will hold their majority if they win just one of the two seats.

It’s hard to overstate the importance of the outcome of these races. If Democrats manage to pick off both seats, President-elect Joe Biden will be working with a Democratic Senate and Democratic House for the first two years of his term. If not, Biden will be working with a Republican Senate and Democratic House -- a divided government scenario which will make it much more difficult for Biden to implement his agenda.

Hey, Charlie! Happy week 53 of 2020. What I'm watching tonight: The clock! (Har har.) But seriously, I'm going to be keeping an eye on how vote tallying goes. Like in November, I think it is entirely possible we don't know the winner of either runoff tonight -- and that's okay! It takes election officials time to process and tally mail ballots ... and at least a million of them have been returned for the runoffs. Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said to not expect results tonight in an interview earlier today on Fox News: "Depends how close it is, but most likely it will probably be tomorrow morning," he said. “It really depends on how many absentee ballots."

Hey, all! Great to be back together again. I feel like I'm ending in the exact same place where we started the Trump era -- covering Jon Ossoff. I basically moved to Atlanta for a few weeks in May and June 2017 to cover the Georgia 6th congressional special election -- the first (major) election during the Trump era. (And James Arkin memorably wrote about Ossoff's evolution as a candidate, if you're interested!) 

I'll be watching JUST how close things get tonight, especially as both sides consider a potential recount... I scooped the details that Facebook was going to fully reinstate it's political ad ban, after making an exemption for the Georgia runoffs. Strategists are already telling me about how problematic this will be if the race is close, which we all expect it to be. But just HOW close it'll be tonight may tell us how furious operatives will be tomorrow about this new ban. And what does it mean that campaigns won't be able to air digital ads about "ballot curing" (fixing errors in your ballot so they count) or about a potential recount? This could be a really big deal, and I'm keeping a close eye on it.

I’m going to be watching the vote compared to November’s baselines in a handful of places — metro Atlanta, rural majority-Black counties, Trump country. Georgia provides some of the most detailed election returns of any state, and the November election was basically a big poll that split close to 50-50. We should be able to watch two things: First of all, is one party consistently outperforming what they’d need to get a majority, going precinct by precinct as those places count all their votes (early and Election Day)?

And also, are we going to watch the urban-rural divide widen in real time? The story of the Trump era has been big metro areas and smaller exurban and rural communities racing apart from each other with each successive election. Just about every special election situation in the last four years has been Democrats doing better than ever before in the big suburbs but Republicans doing even better than that in hundreds of smaller communities. It’s only been two months since the last election, but those divides may have widened again already.

Hey gang! Excited to be here. Tonight I’m looking at the results out of Georgia’s rural counties, places Democrats once all but conceded to Republicans but have poured lots of money and resources into this time around. A number of Democratic and voting rights groups even opened field offices in places like Valdosta in Lowndes County, to show that they feel the entire state is in play. If they overperform there, it's one way they could cut into the GOP's lead at the margins.

Hi, Charlie. It's great to be back. Tonight is unprecedented: double-barreled runoffs in one state to decide control of the Senate. But there is helpful precedent for breaking it down tonight: We just had a closely divided election in Georgia two months ago. That's going to prove very helpful in breaking down the results county-by-county with all of you tonight.

It also means, as Zach hinted, we have precedent about how the vote counting will go. And we know from November that Election Day votes are counted faster, and less-populated (mostly Republican-leaning) counties report faster. That means we should expect the Republican candidates to lead in the vote count for much of the evening. Call it the "red mirage," or the "blue shift," or whatever you want. President Trump, who lost Georgia, had a 10-point lead at midnight on election night. It evaporated as all the votes were finally counted.

Hello from Atlanta! One of the most fascinating storylines coming out of these runoffs has been President Trump’s ability — and, really, desire — to trample all over the GOP’s messaging in order to pressure Republican lawmakers to support his long-shot effort to overturn the results of the November election. The Georgia races are shaping up to be a referendum on the president’s influence on the Republican Party after he leaves the White House — and a Loeffler/Perdue victory would help him assert his viability in the GOP. It would also send a message to Republicans who **don’t** support the Electoral College objections. “People will remember,” Trump declared at his Dalton rally last night. It was one of his loudest applause lines. 

Hello from Atlanta as well. 

The smartest and dumbest thing said in politics is that it’s all about turnout. But on this Election Day, it really does matter. Basically, a low Election Day turnout will be our best indicator of a Democratic upset and a high turnout presages a Republican win. 

Republicans, who have made Election Day voting a political issue in and of itself, are hoping for 900,000 people to show total, which would probably mean lots of GOP voters. But if it hits 700,000, they’ll probably lose. 

If early voting is any indication, the state is on pace for 770,000 Election Day voters. So that’s right in the middle

What’s the turnout today? We really don’t know. That comprehensive, statewide tracking in Georgia is incredibly difficult because this is not a top-down state managed by the state. Instead, it’s a confederation of counties. And there are 159 of them. 

Now Republicans felt good about turnout in Cherokee County, which is in the Atlanta media market and is a big one that Trump won with nearly 70% of the vote in November. But in heavily Democratic DeKalb County Election Day turnout exceeded the number of ballots cast in November.  

Hey everyone! I went to high school in Atlanta and I have deep roots there. It’s been fascinating to see how Atlanta, and the rest of the state, has been transformed by massive demographic shifts. So I’m looking to see if those demographic shifts that flipped the state blue will make a difference in tonight’s runoffs.

Hello from Atlanta, the center of the universe tonight.

This dual Georgia runoff scenario was always a quietly discussed possibility starting right after Sen. Johnny Isakson’s resignation in 2019, given Georgia's runoff law requiring 50 percent plus one to win in November. There was a GOP divide over Gov. Brian Kemp’s appointment of Kelly Loeffler that led to an intraparty war between her and Rep. Doug Collins, all but guaranteeing a runoff in the special election for the rest of Isakson's term. And while Sen. David Perdue wasn’t really considered among the top tier of vulnerable senators to start the cycle, Georgia slowly but surely rose on the list of competitive states through the cycle, with both GOP and Dem groups investing pretty heavily by the end, even well before Joe Biden’s campaign started to play here in a big way.

The last 8 weeks both parties have built unprecedented ground games, and $500 million has gone up on the airwaves bombarding Georgians with TV ads. Democrats started at a historical disadvantage, but their voters have shown up in runoffs like never before, while most Republicans kept looking to Election Day. So here we are, knowing that Dems have turned out in force, and wondering whether Republicans have done so today by enough of a margin to eke out wins in what everyone expects to be a photo finish.

I'll bite on that one, Charlie -- just purely numerically, it was A LOT of people. Over 3 million folks voted before today, about a third via the mail, and the rest in-person early voting. For a while, early voting was keeping pace with the November election, but that dropped off over the holidays. Also, Black voters were casting ballots at a remarkable rate: About 30 percent of all early voters were Black, according to data from the fine folks at [Georgia Votes](https://www.georgiavotes.com/)

The ground games are impressive indeed, James. But I’ve been more struck at just how inundated the state has become with ads—TV, online, billboards, and even up in the sky. As late as 5:30pm, I saw a prop plane flying above Atlanta with a Warnock banner that read: “VOTE TODAY.”

Republicans have for a while now been saying their voters, who already prefer to vote on Election Day, are even more likely to do so in this race. So they're placing a big bet on turnout today, and hoping that their ground game ensures limited drop off

The first returns are in, everybody panic!!! Looks like about 22,000 votes have been reported so far. Do not read into them

And Trump’s visit last night was certainly geared toward Election Day turnout, James. Despite the messaging mishaps over the past few weeks, Trump is still their biggest asset.

Andrew Yep, that's definitely true. Trump had a similar impact on GOP turnout in previous special elections - think NC-09 or even that Pennsylvania race that Dem Rep. Conor Lamb pulled off. Even though Dems ultimately won that, Trump's last-minute rally there, per Republicans at the time, put it closer than it was.

A Republican from the state who’s working for the Senate candidates told me he expects that by 2:30 am, we’ll be sure of a winner. 

What is everyone else hearing?

I'm hearing that I'm going to need more coffee, Marc.

I have heard some hopeful to see a call as early as Marc described. I think the majority of folks I'm talking to expect it to be pretty clear tomorrow. But of course, this is all dependent on how tight it is. The closer we are, the longer it will stretch

If it is *really* close, it might not be 'till Friday at the earliest! That's the deadline for when ballots from certain military and overseas voters have to be received, as long as the deadline for when voters can fix -- or cure -- deficiencies on their ballot

Warnock is on track to overperform in rural areas, something his campaign focused on ahead of the November election. He's also a New Georgia Project alum, which worked tirelessly to turn out hard-to-reach voters.

It’s too bad Georgia doesn’t have a system that makes County election supervisors do what North Carolina and Florida do: process early and absentee ballots ahead of time and tabulate them instantly as soon as polls close. 

If they had that system, it would give faster results and cut down on the bogus conspiracy theories about fraud that inevitably arise when results are too slow to trickle in

They do have that system, Marc! County officials can begin the pre-proccessing of mail ballots more than two weeks before the election, and can tabulate when polls close

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Jon Ossoff (D) ousted David Perdue (R), giving Democrats narrow control of a 50-50 Senate.

Raphael Warnock (D) ousted appointed Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) in a special election runoff.

Julia Letlow (R) won the special election in Louisiana's 5th District. In the 2nd District, two Democrats will go to an April 24 runoff.

Troy Carter (D) beat a fellow Democrat to succeed Cedric Richmond in the House.

Republicans Susan Wright and Jake Ellzey have advanced to a runoff election.

Melanie Stansbury (D) easily won the race to replace former Rep. Deb Haaland (D), who was sworn in as U.S. interior secretary in March.

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Mail ballot processing starts the day before Election Day.

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| Early voting ended April 27. Absentee ballots must either be received by May 1, or postmarked by USPS by May 1 and received by May 3.
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Mail ballots must be postmarked by Nov. 2 or returned in person by Nov. 3.

| Mail ballots must be postmarked by Nov. 2 or returned in person by Nov. 3.
| Mail ballot processing starts weeks before Election Day.
| Mail ballots are automatically sent to registered voters.

Mail ballots must be received by Nov. 2 or returned in person by Nov. 3.

| Mail ballots must be received by Nov. 2 or returned in person by Nov. 3.
| Mail ballot processing starts weeks before Election Day.
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See how the 2020 Senate races played out, leaving the majority up to Georgia.

The president called for overturning Georgia’s November election results throughout the two-month runoff.

Gov. Brian Kemp and Stacey Abrams aren’t on the ballot on Tuesday. But their political futures are tightly wound to the runoffs.

Our conversation with Cedric Richmond (D), who represented Louisiana's 2nd District before he left to join the Biden administration.

Rep.-elect Luke Letlow (R) of the state’s 5th District died from the coronavirus in late December. His wife is running to take his seat.

There are already five special House elections set for the first year of Joe Biden’s presidency. Here’s what we know about them so far.

The first competitive special of the new election cycle has quickly turned into a 2020 redux: It's the Donald Trump show all over again.

GOP Rep. Ron Wright of Texas died in February after a battle with coronavirus.

Michael Wood’s risky strategy centers on a belief there is a healthy slice of the GOP ready to move on from Trump.

Live results and analysis from the Jan. 5 Senate runoffs

How a life-sized Biden could be a larger-than-life president

Three reasons Joe Biden flipped the Midwest in 2020

Candidate	Pct.
Stansbury dem	63.1% 61,293
Moores gop	33% 32,048
Dunn ind	2.7% 2,585
Manning lib	1.2% 1,213

House

Sen.

Melanie Stansbury (D) easily won the race to replace former Rep. Deb Haaland (D), who was sworn in as U.S. interior secretary in March.

Last updated June 1, 2021, 10:21 p.m. EDT

How is this state handling voting amid Covid-19? Learn more

Polls close

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New Mexico's 1st district

Candidate

Pct.

House

Sen.

Melanie Stansbury (D) easily won the race to replace former Rep. Deb Haaland (D), who was sworn in as U.S. interior secretary in March.

Last updated June 1, 2021, 10:21 p.m. EDT

How is this state handling voting amid Covid-19? Learn more

Polls close

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Ballot counting

New Mexico's 1st district

Candidate

Pct.

Analysis

Inside Donald Trump’s 2020 undoing

Altitude

How a life-sized Biden could be a larger-than-life president

Analysis

Three reasons Joe Biden flipped the Midwest in 2020