Justin Trudeau’s big reveal

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POLITICO is partnering with the Coalition for a Better Future to bring a special edition of the POLITICO’s Ottawa Playbook to the Better Future Summit. The newsletter takes readers inside the two-day gathering of innovators, problem-solvers and thought-leaders from Canada and beyond to help point the way toward a more inclusive, sustainable and prosperous future.

WELCOME TO OTTAWA PLAYBOOK. I’m your host, Nick Taylor-Vaisey. It’s Wednesday, which means the Hill is in full recovery mode from Tuesday’s Cabinet Day. We guide you through the promotions, snubs and shocks — and read between the lines on the challenges ahead for key ministers. Also, everything you need to know about the Coalition for a Better Future summit. And, of course, trivia.

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DRIVING THE DAY

IN THE FLESH — Look, we’re fine with virtual meetings. At first they were clunky, necessary evils when the whole world was staying home. Then they were standard operating procedure because most white-collar geeks cautiously stayed home after the worst of the crisis. They’re frustrating because technology fails. But they kept us employed. It was complicated, okay?

This morning, the POLITICO Canada team is in for a real thrill. We’re heading to a conference. In real life. In Ottawa. At a convention centre. With other people. To talk about policy. In real life. We had FOMO watching the Banff Forum. But now our time has come.

— Wait, what conference? You’ve seen the promos in recent Playbooks. The Summit of the Coalition for a Better Future is going down at the Ottawa Convention Centre today — don’t worry, it’s also virtual and you can register here — is a two-day festival of ideas on how to build consensus among a bevy of stakeholders on Canada’s economic future.

— The chairs: You know it’s serious because LISA RAITT and ANNE MCLELLAN are co-chairs. One is proudly Conservative. The other is unmistakably Liberal. Raitt works as vice-chair of global investment banking at CIBC. McLellan is a senior adviser at Bennett Jones. Both served in major Cabinet portfolios. Both were key members of their party establishment. And now they’re teaming up to talk about the future.

Before we really get into the conference, we need to reflect on Tuesday’s biggest news. There was a cabinet shuffle, y’know.

SOGGY WAYS — It’s just nicer when it’s sunny outside. A rainy Rideau Hall is no place to swear-in a new Cabinet if that front bench wants to escape nasty symbolism about how all that hope and optimism that brought JUSTIN TRUDEAU‘s Liberals to power in 2015 has been swallowed whole by successive scandals and hyper-efficient election machines that ignore wide swaths of Canada.

— But let’s not be downers: A minister widely regarded as an all-star performer during the pandemic was promoted to a crucial file. ANITA ANAND, the minister of securing vaccines for every one of us, is the new defense minister. HARJIT SAJJAN is demoted to international development. Anand is now responsible for vanquishing a misogynistic military culture that Sajjan utterly failed to address.

Anand is no stranger to national security issues. She testified at a 2015 Senate committee about federal laws meant to prevent terrorist financing. (She had harsh words.)

One correspondent in our DMs quipped that given the enormity of the task at hand, the defense portfolio is “a punishment, not a promotion.” Another pointed out that Anand’s most stressful days on the job haven’t so far included sustained in-person barrages in question period. Yelling at a minister in real life adds a certain tenacity to the exercise. But there’s your price of success in politics. The best problem-solvers get the biggest problems.

— The peanut gallery: Another Playbook correspondent texted us a certain irony. “Funny, Sajjan couldn’t handle issues of sexual misconduct at DND, but now he’s at international development and tasked with delivering on the government’s feminist foreign policy.”

— Wernick’s advice: Which brings us to that handy toolkit on governance written by MICHAEL WERNICK, the former clerk of the Privy Council. In A Guide to the Tradecraft of Politics, Wernick advises prime ministers to “ignore the conventional wisdoms about the pecking order and focus instead on what projects are too important to fail.”

The Liberals campaigned hard on climate change, housing affordability, child care and reconciliation, which means the ministers on those files are the ones Trudeau trusts most. STEVEN GUILBEAULT, a climate activist who got famous climbing the CN Tower, scored the environment gig. The oil patch will roll its eyes, but the Liberals are clearly drawing a line in the sand — plus, new Natural Resources Minister JONATHAN WILKINSON, a former cleantech exec respected by industry, didn’t stray too far.

AHMED HUSSEN gets housing, a new standalone portfolio with a lengthy post-election to-do list. (Hussen’s mandate letter will be sprawling.) KARINA GOULD replaces Hussen as social development minister, a job that requires hard negotiations with holdout provinces on a five-year, C$30-billion childcare promise.

MARC MILLER shifts from Indigenous services to Crown-Indigenous Relations, a lateral move but one that signals Miller has built a foundation of trust with Indigenous communities. He replaces CAROLYN BENNETT, the new minister for mental health and addictions — a demotion on paper, but a crucial file. PATTY HAJDU takes over for Miller.

Guilbeault, Wilkinson, Hussen, Gould, Miller and Hajdu: Wernick’s rubric suggests those are the ministers whose success is most crucial to a government that wants to wedge a bold agenda into a fraught minority Parliament.

— Oh yeah, the shocker: Playbook heard a rumor Monday that MARC GARNEAU would be shuffled out of foreign affairs. La Presse broke the news a few hours before the swearing-in that he’d actually be dumped from Cabinet — and eventually sent to a vacant diplomatic posting in Paris, according to every single person in town. At least the first part came to be. Garneau was not on the list of ministers (which, by the way, the PMO published online in violation of their own embargo, but we digress).

Canada has its fifth foreign minister in six years, and 11th in the last 15: MÉLANIE JOLY, the well-liked Montrealer who co-chaired the Liberals’ national campaign that netted 159 seats — not exactly a result to boast about, but apparently one that merits a promotion that raised eyebrows in the capital. (PABLO RODRIGUEZ, the co-chair in Quebec, was shuffled from House leader to heritage. Any bets on which gig produces more headaches? We call it a wash.)

Joly will face an astounding array of questions almost immediately. For instance, what is her government’s policy on China? At her opening presser, Joly waxed nostalgic about LESTER B. PEARSON‘s worldview, though acknowledged the world had changed since the 1960s. She summarized Canada’s strategy as a mixture of “humility and audacity.” An army of lobbyists and allies asks in reply: What does that mean?

— Economic development: Trudeau has appointed seven ministers with “economic development” portfolios. MARY NG, who’s still trade minister, gets the generic ED title. Newfoundland newcomer GUDIE HUTCHINGS gets rural economic development. Five other ministers — Sajjan, Hajdu, Manitoban DAN VANDAL, rural Quebecer PASCAL ST-ONGE and Cabinet returnee GINETTE PETITPAS TAYLOR — split regional development agencies that used to be overseen by one minister. (First, NAVDEEP BAINS. Later, Joly.)

Two competing theories emerge about this phalanx of front-benchers. The first is this: Finally, regional folks are back in charge of funding agencies. “A wharf in the Maritimes that needs help doesn’t need to call Melanie Joly,” quipped one observer. The second is this: Exactly how will this all be structured? Who reports to whom? Who’s keeping an eye on the billions of dollars flying out the door?

— The also-rans: In our copious cabinet speculation, Playbook floated several names who didn’t pass the final cuts. Halifax’s LENA DIAB is on the outside looking in. Her fellow Nova Scotians might see a little red, since neighboring New Brunswick and nearby Newfoundland and Labrador each have two seats at the table.

The nation’s capital only has MONA FORTIER. A gaggle of contenders — YASIR NAQVI, ANITA VANDENBELD, MARIE-FRANCE LALONDE and JENNA SUDDS — will all have to wait their turn. Across the river in Gatineau, GREG FERGUS and STEVEN MACKINNON can look forward to another round of sub-cabinet appointments.

In Toronto, former provincial minister MICHAEL COTEAU didn’t check exactly the right boxes. And then there’s BARDISH CHAGGER, dropped from the team after six years.

Playbook’s next round of targeted, responsible, totally fun speculation: Who’s the next chief whip? Which newcomers — and long-suffering veterans — will land parliamentary secretary gigs? Who will replace newly retired WAYNE EASTER as chair of the finance committee?

The Liberals also need a national caucus chair, and regional chairs. And deputies. There’s lots of room on the ladder. It’s a big ladder.

— And then there was one: Only a single cabinet minister retained the same job they were handed on Nov. 4, 2015. DIANE LEBOUTHILLIER remained at national revenue. That’s the second-longest tenure ever. She’s only bested by JAMES JOSEPH MCCANN, who served a stunning 12 years after his appointment on the heels of the Second World War.

— The road ahead: CHRYSTIA FREELAND remains the deputy prime minister, finance minister, and heir apparent to the Liberal throne in the eyes of lots of party apparatchiks. But don’t move on from the current PM too fast. We really buried the lede on this, but Trudeau was asked Tuesday if he intended to fight another election. His answer: “Yes.”

Related reading from POLITICO: 11 things about Trudeau’s new Cabinet. Plus, ANDY BLATCHFORD: Trudeau taps military outsider to fix Canadian Armed Forces.

DIPLOMATIC ANSWERS — BOB RAE, Canada’s ambassador to the U.N., spoke with POLITICO’s LUIZA SAVAGE Tuesday evening during the Public Policy Forum’s virtual fall dinner. Catch it here with the Q&A around the 46-minute mark.

During a wide-ranging conversation about trust, Rae was asked if the prime minister’s Tofino trip had damaged his relationship with Indigenous people in Canada. “The prime minister has already apologized. So I think that speaks for itself,” Rae said. “The federal government has done more than any government in the history of the country to try to improve the relationships (with) Indigenous people.”

Speaking of trust, listen to MARC MILLER, via APTN, answer a question on how to rebuild the government’s “broken” relationship with Indigenous peoples.

Asked if he had advice for Canada’s new foreign minister, Rae said he’d prefer to wait for MÉLANIE JOLY to ask.

On Canada’s China policy after the release of MICHAEL SPAVOR and MICHAEL KOVRIG, he told Savage that he expects the government will clarify its policy direction. “But I would say the elements of that policy are already very clear. The first one is that we don’t accept the Chinese definition of the rule of law, as they’ve applied it.”

TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will chair a 9:30 ET meeting of the Cabinet. But they’ll be closer to his Rideau Cottage home than the Hill. Ministers will speak to reporters at the John G. Diefenbaker Building — that’s Ottawa’s old city hall on Sussex Drive.

Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland is at the Canadian Chamber of Commerce AGM, where she’ll sit down for a 1:30 ET “fireside chat” with chamber prez PERRIN BEATTY.

THE SUMMIT

— What is the coalition? It’s more than 100 think tanks, lobby and advocacy groups, chambers of commerce, boards of trade and universities that have “committed to sharing their perspectives while listening to — and learning from — others.”

— Who’s speaking at the summit? The full agenda is here. PAUL ROMER, co-winner of the 2018 Nobel Prize in Economics Sciences is on the docket. So is DERRICK ROSSI, the co-founder of Moderna. And don’t miss economist RAJ CHETTY, one of the youngest-ever tenured profs at Harvard University.

We’ll also be catching up with ALICIA DUBOIS, the CEO of the Alberta Indigenous Opportunities Corporation; DAX DASILVA, CEO of cloud-based ecommerce platform Lightspeed; JODY ANDERSON, director of business development for the First Nations Finance Authority; KARN MANHAS, the CEO of sustainable agriculture company Terramera; PETER TERTZAKIAN, a geophysicist, economist and investment strategist; STEWART ELGIE, the founder and chair of the Smart Prosperity Institute; MONICA GATTINGER, chair of the University of Ottawa’s Institute for Science, Society and Policy; and STEWART REYNOLDS, whom you’ll know better as Brittlestar.

We’ll also sit down with Raitt and McLellan at the end of the summit as they ponder everything that filled their brains in two days.

— What can you expect from us? POLITICO Canada will be watching every second of the two-day confab. I’ll join ANDY BLATCHFORD, ZI-ANN LUM and SUE ALLAN for wall-to-wall coverage. We’ll interview dynamic speakers and keep you in the loop on how they want to lead Canada through uncertain times.

THE MORE WE ARE TOGETHER — Jon Yates is the author of Fractured, a book described “as the post-pandemic manifesto we need.” He actually started writing pre-pandemic, before Donald Trump, when “Brexit was a typo,” he says. “Six years ago, the book needed to persuade you that we had a problem with division. Today, everyone knows.”

Yate speaks at the Summit on Thursday. We caught him over the weekend via email:

The world has never been more connected. Fractured suggests it has never been so divided. What is the No. 1 reason for that?

In 1953, a man called Francis Evans became obsessed by door-to-door sales. He followed 150 salespeople as they sold life insurance. He found something extraordinary. Each salesperson was more likely to make a sale if the person buying voted the same way they did, earned the same as them or was the same height. What he had found was proof that we all have a small bias towards People Like Me. 39,000 studies have come to the same conclusion. The No. 1 reason we divide isn’t something out there. It’s in us. We suffer from what I call, “People Like Me” Syndrome.

Your book is optimistic, but also radical in championing the idea of mandating shared moments that bring people together with others who seem different.

We humans are actually pretty good at forming friendships. If you are thrown together with someone who seems different to you, you will often find common ground. Throughout history, great societies have done exactly this – they have created habits that do throw people who seem different together. As hunter-gatherers, we did this through dances and rituals. As early farmers, we used religious services and feast days. As factory workers, we relied on clubs, the local school and the local workplace. I call these institutions, the Common Life. The problem is we have started to lose the Common Life that used to unite us together. We need to find a new one.

In Canada, Covid-19 exposed and amplified social inequities. You describe the pandemic as revealing things hidden in plain sight. To what were you referring?

At the start of the pandemic, many of us felt more connected to each other. We told ourselves, “we are all in the same boat.” As the pandemic went on, most of us realized the truth was subtly different. We were in the same storm, but we were all in different boats — some more seaworthy than the other. Most of us began to notice that the boat we were in, the friendships we maintained, contained mostly people rather like us — while the news showed us a different wider world, outside of our social circle.

You will be speaking to an audience of Canadians at the Better Future summit. In your mind, what does that future look like?

There is so much the rest of the world can learn from Canada. You have problems with division but they are not as bad as in the United States or in my home country of the U.K.

Why is that? In the U.S. and U.K., we’ve lost a lot of the places where people who are different would mix – schools with both rich and poor in, clubs and associations where people do sport and activities together. The future needs to look more Canadian!

We all need to find new ways to connect with people unlike us. Why? Because it makes our democracy safer from extremists, our society fairer — as jobs tend to come through connections – and our anxiety levels lower. The future can be happier, safer and with better politics — if we can just keep on connecting with each other.

What is one first step we could take to get there?

Go onto social media. Look at the last 10 people on your timeline. If you agree with all of them politically, start following one of two new people who you disagree with.

MEDIA ROOM

— Our pals at The Curse of Politics have some thoughts on the shuffle.

— On The Decibel this morning: MEGAN MACKENZIE on what to do about sexual misconduct in the military.
Read her Globe opinion essay here: Sexual misconduct in the military is the Prime Minister’s responsibility — and failure.

— Bonavista Mayor JOHN NORMAN is on The Big Story podcast today to talk about the population boom there.

What are you listening to? Playbook wants to know.

— Turkey’s standoff with 10 ambassadors, including Canada’s, was political grandstanding, and Erdogan came out the winner, ADNAN R. KHAN writes for Maclean’s.

— An inquiry is not enough for international crimes against Indigenous children at the Indian residential schools, CHERYL MATTHEW writes for APTN National News.

— For our readers in Ottawa via the CBC: LRT should return to full service by MID-DECEMBER, city says. (Emphasis ours.) To catch yourself up, here’s JOANNE CHIANELLO on TVO’s The Agenda last night. The segment? What’s going on with the Ottawa LRT?

PROZONE

If you’re a Pro subscriber, catch ZI-ANN LUM in our Canada PM newsletter: What you need to know about the Cabinet revamp.

In other news for Pros:

— Who’s who in the PM’s 38-member Cabinet.
— White House sets climate spending at up to $555 billion.
— State, CDC outline latest orders before Nov. 8 international travel restart.
— Inside Facebook, a picture of market dominance.
— 5 takeaways from POLITICO’s briefing on reconciliation, appropriations.

PLAYBOOKERS

Birthdays: JACK HARRIS, who used his farewell speech in the House to urge young people “to take the torch,” is 73 today. … Former Ontario Cabinet minister ROB SAMPSON is 66 … Yukon MLA JOHN STREIKER is 59 … PETER HERRNDORF is 81. The former CEO of the National Arts Centre has been called “the most successful, influential and beloved leader in the performing arts in Canada.”

Birthdays, gatherings, social notices? Send them our way.

Spotted: SEAMUS O’REGAN and his mom. … GRAEME C. CLARK, Canada’s top envoy to Mexico, notes a “Mexican” section at his local grocery store here in Ottawa (the Beechwood Metro where Playbook recently spotted a New Zealand diplomat’s ride).

Noted at the Canadian Chamber of Commerce Breakfast Club on Twitter Space Tuesday morning: MARK AGNEW, HARRISON RUESS, STEPHEN TAPP, STEPHEN TAYLOR, BRETT HOUSE, GREG MACEACHERN, SEAN SPEER, MEAGAN MURDOCH, FAWN JACKSON, COLIN MCKAY, MIKE MUELLER and LISA RAITT.

The Chamber holds its annual AGM this week, a virtual shindig that includes a fireside chat today with CHRYSTIA FREELAND and PERRIN BEATTY. On Thursday, Chamber senior VP Agnew will lead a panel discussion on The New Normal.

Movers and shakers: EARNSCLIFFE STRATEGY GROUP has rebranded to EARNSCLIFFE STRATEGIES. … ELIZABETH ROSCOE of Rubicon Strategy is now lobbying for the Canadian Wireless Telecommunications Association. … StrategyCorp’s FRÉDÉRIK LAROUCHE is repping Quebecor. … Summa’s ALEX MAHEU lobbied TYLER MEREDITH, director of economic strategy and planning for CHRYSTIA FREELAND.

Media moves: CAROLE MACNEIL has signed off of CBC News.“Carole is exceptional and I knew that from the first time I saw her on-air a few decades ago,” pal KATHLEEN PETTY tweeted Tuesday evening.

ASK US ANYTHING

What is happening? Questions about the Hill? Send them our way.

TRIVIA

Tuesday’s answer: The late LINCOLN ALEXANDER was the first Black Canadian MP. He was elected in 1968 and re-elected in 1972, 1974 and 1979. Alexander was also the first Black cabinet minister when he headed up the labour portfolio.

Props to BOB GORDON, TIM MCCALLUM, JOHN DILLON, DAVID MCLENNAN, JOHN ECKER (the chair of the Ontario Heritage Trust, which he points out was also chaired by Alexander), MICHAEL MACDONALD, LEIGH LAMPERT, ELIZABETH BURN, BRANDON VAN DAM, ROSS LECLAIR, CHRIS LEGGETT, DAVID FRANSEN, ART WHITAKER, PEGGI MACE, ALAN KAN, ANDREW KOSTER, BEN ROTH, BOB ERNEST, RYAN HAMILTON and CULLY ROBINSON.

Wednesday’s question: With whom did LISA RAITT sing at the 2014 Press Gallery dinner? For bonus marks, what song did they perform?

Send your answers to [email protected]

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Playbook wouldn’t happen without Luiza Ch. Savage, editor Sue Allan and Andy Blatchford.