Playbook: What Joe Biden has to fear from Michigan

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With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine

DRIVING THE DAY

A NEWSY EPISODE OF ‘LATE NIGHT’ — President JOE BIDEN addressed prospects for a cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas war during his appearance on NBC’s “Late Night With Seth Meyers” that aired early this morning: “Ramadan’s coming up and there has been an agreement by the Israelis that they would not engage in activities during Ramadan as well, in order to give us time to get all the hostages out,” Biden said, referring to the Muslim holy month that starts in two weeks. More from AP … Watch a clip

On the age-old question ... “You gotta take a look at the other guy. He’s about as old as I am, but he can’t remember his wife’s name. … It’s about how old your ideas are. Look, I mean, this is a guy who wants to take us back. He wants to take us back on Roe v. Wade. He wants to take us back on a whole range of issues that are — 50, 60 years, they’ve been solid American positions.”

BIDEN’S MICHIGAN PROBLEM — Amid a steady stream of polls showing DONALD TRUMP leading in the state, leaders there in the Arab and Muslim American communities have organized against Biden over what they see as the administration’s disregard for Palestinian suffering.

A more radical campaign under the banner of “Abandon Biden” has given up on him completely. A more moderate campaign calling itself “Listen to Michigan” is holding out hope that Biden can change course and back a permanent cease-fire. They are urging voters to send him a message in today’s Michigan primary by choosing “uncommitted” on their ballot.

Biden is outwardly playing it cool. He hasn’t been to Michigan since Feb. 1. But his allies in the state say that behind the scenes there is panic at the White House and inside the Biden reelection campaign.

“They are freaking out about the uncommitted vote,” said a Democrat close to Biden.

Biden quietly recorded a couple of radio interviews that aired yesterday to boost Democratic turnout. And he used his trip to 30 Rock to assure the public that a cease-fire, at least a temporary one, is right around the corner. After wrapping the interview with Meyers, the two hit a nearby ice cream parlor and Biden said he hoped for calm by Monday.

“Nothing in politics is a coincidence,” Rep. RO KHANNA (D-Calif.) told us about the election-eve timing of Biden’s statements. “This is happening because the president is hearing that a large part of his coalition wants this war to end.”

It took Biden a long time to engage in personal outreach to Muslim and Arab leaders in the state, and that occurred only after lobbying by elected officials, one of whom said Biden’s aides were “keeping him in a bubble.”

Khanna, who often serves as a liaison between the White House and progressives, visited Michigan and was struck by the intensity of the anti-Biden sentiment. “There is a deep sense of hurt and loss, pain, grief among the Muslim and Arab American community and the progressive community,” Khanna said.

While campaigning with Biden before the South Carolina primary, he pulled the president aside and made it clear he had issues in Michigan. “I said, ‘You’re losing progressives, you need to change,’ Khanna said. “He said, ‘Ro, I hear you. I understand. I understand that people are upset and I am pushing Bibi.”

As the progressive backlash in Michigan intensified, Biden bungled his initial response. In late January, his campaign manager, JULIE CHAVEZ RODRIGUEZ, was dispatched to Michigan to meet with local community leaders. An afternoon meeting with some 20 Arab American leaders was scrapped when they all refused to attend.

“His problem is not a political problem, it’s a policy problem,” said former Michigan congressman ANDY LEVIN, who is supporting the Uncommitted effort. “And you saw what happened when he tried to send the political people to meet the leaders in the Arab-American Muslim communities. They basically all said: ‘No, we’re not meeting with you. That’s insulting.’”

There was finally some improvement a week later when Biden sent his policy advisers to a meeting in Dearborn. JON FINER, Biden’s deputy national security adviser, was contrite, according to an audio recording of the meeting leaked to the Times, and back in Washington that same day, Biden made his most pointed criticism of Israel, saying the response to the Oct. 7 attacks “has been over the top.”

An elected official from Michigan who served as an intermediary in the talks was highly critical of the White House. “Should they have been out here sooner? Yes. We all know that. Did they show any empathy early? No. We all know that.” But the official saw the Finer meeting as a modest breakthrough: “They connected with people, and those conversations are ongoing.”

But there’s still concerns: On the eve of the primary, the Biden campaign issued messaging guidance to top Michigan Democrats about how to push back against the Uncommitted activists that has not gone over well.

“The Biden campaign wants me to tell you that any vote not for Biden is a vote for Donald Trump,” the elected official said. “I’m not gonna go that hard.” Such blunt accusations, the person argued, would come across as insulting and unsympathetic given how raw the anger is about Biden’s Israel policies: “I mean, they’re like, ‘Donald Trump never killed us, Joe Biden killed our families.”

Others have been more agreeable to the Biden messaging guidance. Gov. GRETCHEN WHITMER, a co-chair of the Biden reelect, was on CNN on Sunday spreading the campaign’s talking points. “Any vote that’s not cast for Joe Biden supports a second Trump term,” Whitmer said. (A backlash followed.)

So what will happen today?

We’re told that phone bankers for the Listen to Michigan campaign contacted some 100,000 voters, but their big takeaway was that most said they were simply going to stay home. Some backers of the protest campaign have publicly set a goal of 10,000 uncommitted votes, but that is a low bar: In 2020, without any organized effort, there were over 19,000.

The percentage will be a better indicator. Anything in the double digits would be impressive.

But even if the uncommitted effort is a dud, the activists behind it are not going away. “I need Biden to win reelection,” said Levin, “and I can’t help him win reelection in Michigan, I don’t think, without him changing course.”

Related reads: “Joe Biden Is Not a Human Rights Guy. Don’t Be So Surprised,” by Nahal Toosi … “Michigan’s primary is about to reveal how vulnerable Biden is on Israel,” by Elena Schneider and Adam Cancryn … “The Top Muslim State Lawmaker in Michigan Wants You to Turn on Joe Biden,” by Sophie Gardner for POLITICO Magazine

Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

IN THE DOG HOUSE — “Don’t blame Biden’s dogs for the blood on the White House floors,” by Jill Abramson for WaPo: “At some point, the trouble is not the animals — it’s the owners.”

WHY SHE’S STILL IN — “My Nikki Haley Theory,” by John Podhoretz in Commentary: “Haley is running in case Trump loses. … The person who can say ‘I told you so’ in that case, and simultaneously offer a new path to the future, will be NIKKI HALEY.”

WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

On the Hill

The Senate is in. JULIE SU will testify before the Senate HELP Committee on her nomination to be Labor secretary at 11:30 a.m.

The House is out.

3 things to watch …

  1. The latest shutdown showdown appeared to cool off a little bit ahead of today’s big White House meeting, with senators sounding relatively upbeat yesterday about striking a deal on the four spending bills expiring Friday. (Even Sen. RAND PAUL (R-Ky.) said he’d stand aside while lodging his “traditional complaints.”) But let’s be honest, the real drama is on the House side, where Speaker MIKE JOHNSON has yet to call his play with the Freedom Caucus crowd showing blitz. “WHAT’S THE STATUS? Short Answer: NO PLAN TO FIGHT,” Rep. CHIP ROY (R-Texas) vented last night.
  2. The prospects for the ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS impeachment trial are becoming a little clearer: A quick dismissal is looking more and more certain once the articles come over from the House, the timing of which remains unsettled. Sen. JON TESTER (D-Mont.) yesterday joined Sen. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) in supporting a summary acquittal. One person still on the fence is Sen. KYRSTEN SINEMA (I-Ariz.), who told reporters when asked about her views on the articles, “I have to read them first.”
  3. Democrats will try to keep the Alabama IVF ruling in the public eye today: Sens. TAMMY BALDWIN (D-Wis.), TAMMY DUCKWORTH (D-Ill.) and PATTY MURRAY (D-Wash.) are holding a Capitol news conference this morning to promote their legislation protecting the practice. Expect a personal testimonial from Duckworth, who has spoken publicly about her own family’s use of IVF to conceive.

At the White House

Biden will meet with the four congressional leaders at the White House at 11:30 a.m., with VP KAMALA HARRIS also in attendance. Later, Biden and Harris will have lunch together and receive the President’s Daily Brief. Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will brief at 2 p.m.

Harris will convene voting rights leaders for a discussion on voting rights and other fundamental freedoms in the afternoon.

PLAYBOOK READS

2024 WATCH

THE MAGA MONEY MACHINE — Trump is filling out his fundraising operation as the general election inches closer and closer, with a renewed emphasis on tapping the Republican donor base as he faces a number of still-unfolding legal traps that threaten to tie up more and more of his money, The Bulwark’s Marc Caputo reports.

The Trump effort is focusing on three main areas, which are somewhat new avenues for the former president: (1) Hosting more traditional events and making donor calls, (2) quietly raising money for the RNC’s “nominee fund” and (3) beefing up his online and digital fundraising staff.

“He’s much more engaged than I’ve ever seen him at this, and that’s because he has to be,” a Republican source familiar with the campaign’s finances told The Bulwark. “The numbers right now aren’t good, but we should raise a billion dollars or $900 million at this pace now. We’ll have enough.”

More top reads:

MORE POLITICS

EMPIRE STATE OF MIND — New York Democrats yesterday spurned a bipartisan commission’s redistricting proposal for the state in favor of taking control of the map-making process to draw their own lines that will benefit the party as Dems try to stem their recent losses in New York. “Behind closed doors, Democrats were still haggling over a complex set of legal and political concerns that could determine how aggressive they would be,” NYT’s Nicholas Fandos reports. “The choices included a dramatic redraw that would give Democrats an advantage in 22 of the state’s 26 districts; another option would only make slight alterations to a handful of swing seats.”

MURPHY’S FLAW — “She ran a dark-money group. Now Senate candidate Tammy Murphy wants to reform them,” by Matt Friedman: “Murphy’s public position overlooks the participation of her and her allies in the campaign finance system she now opposes, drawing accusations of hypocrisy.”

CONGRESS

DRAINING THE SWAMP — The exodus of establishment and governing-minded House Republicans is leaving the remaining conference members concerned about a specific kind of brain drain: A loss of maturity, Jordain Carney and Olivia Beavers report this morning.

“This Congress’ rush for the exits could portend an even bigger headache for GOP leadership come 2025. If they hold onto the majority, they will likely have to wrangle an even more emboldened bloc of hardliners who made their name by fighting their own party — a group that would only gain further influence if Trump returns to the White House. …

“[T]he departing members have had to personally reckon with the type of Republican who might replace them if they left, making things worse for a conference that already has a problem with political self-sabotage. In fact, some House Republicans privately admit to each other that they chose reelection this year to prevent hardliners from claiming their seats, according to two incumbents who entertained retirement and spoke about their calculus on condition of anonymity.”

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

MIDDLE EAST LATEST — Israeli officials say that the war in Gaza cannot end until Hamas leader YEHIYA SINWAR “is either captured, killed or no longer in a position to run the organization,” WaPo’s Shane Harris reports. “But pinpointing Sinwar’s location may not be as difficult, tactically or politically, as mounting a military operation to neutralize him without also killing or injuring many of the hostages believed to be nearby, according to Israeli, U.S. and other Western intelligence and security officials who described the challenging hunt for Israel’s most-wanted man.”

Power play: “Palestinian Authority’s Government Resigns, Yielding to International Pressure,” by WSJ’s Summer Said, Omar Abdel-Baqui and Fatima AbdulKarim: “The move falls short of changes Western and Arab governments have pressured the Palestinian Authority to make, including replacing longtime career politicians with a technocratic team and for MAHMOUD ABBAS, the authority’s unpopular, 88-year-old president, to step aside and invest a new prime minister with some of the president’s powers.”

More top reads:

TRUMP CARDS

WHAT A GAG — In what has become a familiar request among Trump’s array of court cases, Manhattan DA ALVIN BRAGG asked the judge overseeing his hush money trial to institute a gag order against the former president, our colleague Erica Orden reports from New York. “Trump’s pattern of attacks against people involved in cases against him creates ‘a reasonable likelihood of witness intimidation, juror interference, and harassment of other participants in this criminal proceeding,’ prosecutors wrote. If the judge agrees, it would be the third case in recent months in which Trump is subject to a gag order.” Read the filing

DOCU-DRAMA — JACK SMITH, the special counsel investigating Trump’s handling of classified documents, told the court yesterday that Biden’s handling of classified documents is not “remotely” similar to the “deceitful criminal conduct” of Trump, Kyle Cheney reports. The 12 -page filing responds to Trump’s claim he’s been selectively prosecuted and seeks to distinguish Trump’s alleged behavior from what special counsel ROBERT HUR alleged in his report on Biden. Read the filing

THE SOCIAL NETWORKING — As Trump’s social media venture, Trump Media & Technology Group, eyes a final move toward legitimacy, his stake in the endeavor “could be worth as much as $4 billion once a long-delayed merger closes,” NYT’s Matthew Goldstein reports, a deal that “could provide him with a potential financial lifeline” with payments for legal penalties coming due.

POLICY CORNER

FOR THOSE KEEPING TRACK — “Pentagon review finds DOD staff had no ‘ill intent’ in failing to disclose Austin’s condition,” by Alexander Ward and Lara Seligman

MARKET PRICE — “US government sues to block largest supermarket merger in history,” by CNN’s Nathaniel Meyersohn

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

HOW IT’S LANDING — “Arrest of Migrant in Georgia Killing Turns City Into Latest Battleground on Immigration,” by NYT’s Richard Fausset and Alessandro Marazzi Sassoon: “The relatively liberal culture of Athens, its local immigration policies, and the border crisis have combined with a brutal crime to create a toxic brew at Georgia’s flagship university, where student politics runs the gamut.”

PLAYBOOKERS

Katie Rogers’ “American Woman: The Transformation of the Modern First Lady, From Hillary Clinton to Jill Biden” is out today.

Donald Trump Jr.’s Florida home was investigated after a letter with a white powdery substance was delivered to him.

Mitt Romney is an IVF supporter.

Steve Bannon’s CPAC party was a hit.

Adam Schiff is not disgruntled. Although an “Adam Schiff” was listed in the credits for Sunday night’s episode of Curb Your Enthusiasm as “Disgruntled Golfer 4,” it was not the California congressman and Senate candidate. “He was preettyyy, preettyyy, sure,” according to a campaign spokesperson.

OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at a kickoff reception for Democracy Forward’s inaugural “Together for Democracy” conference at the MLK Jr. Memorial Library yesterday evening: Skye Perryman, Rakim Brooks, Patrick Gaspard, Maju Varghese, Olivia Julianna, Max Levy, Jess Floyd, Maggie Jo Buchanan, China Dickerson, Sunu Chandy and Maya Wiley.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Eric Holder is announcing today that he will remain in place for the next decade as chair of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, which he founded with Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi. The news of Holder’s recommitment comes as the NRDC rolls out a new 10-year plan to prepare for the 2030 census and the subsequent redistricting that will follow. Read the announcement

— Ryan Tyson and Andrew Romeo, two veterans of Ron DeSantis’ presidential campaign, are joining P2 Public Affairs. Tyson, who was the DeSantis campaign pollster, will lead P2 Insights, a newly established research vertical. Romeo, who was the campaign’s comms director, will focus on advising clients on communications-related matters. The firm was co-founded by Phil Cox and Generra Peck, two other senior figures in the DeSantis orbit.

— James Singer and Sarafina Chitika are both joining the Biden-Harris 2024 team’s rapid response team as the campaign turns its attention to the general election. Singer will be rapid response advisor and spokesperson and Chitika will be the senior spokesperson for rapid response. Singer comes to the campaign from USAID where he was a senior communications advisor, and Chitika from the DNC where she was national press secretary.

— Claudia Chavez is joining the Democratic National Convention team in Chicago as senior director for political and coalition outreach. She previously was special assistant to the president for candidate recruitment in the White House and is a Chicagoland native who worked for Biden in Iowa and Illinois during the 2020 primary and oversaw Midwest battleground states during the general election.

WHITE HOUSE DEPARTURE LOUNGE — Deputy press secretary Olivia Dalton is planning to leave the administration to work in a comms role for Apple, Bloomberg’s Jennifer Jacobs scooped.

MEDIA MOVES — Julia Johnson is now a Senate reporter for Fox News Digital. She previously was a politics reporter at the Washington Examiner. … Gemma Garcia is returning to Telemundo as EVP of news, overseeing the news division and leading 2024 presidential election coverage, per the L.A. Times. She most recently was head of RTVE Play at Radio Televisión Española.

TRANSITIONS — Ashley Powers is now counsel in Miller & Chevalier’s government contracts counseling and litigation practice. She most recently was senior counsel in the contract law division of the CIA’s Office of the General Counsel. … Hari Sevugan is joining Shallot Communications as a senior adviser. He is the founding partner of Narrator Message & Media and is a Pete Buttigieg, Obama and DNC alum. … Claudia Larson is joining the Edible Oil Producers Association as president and CEO. She previously was senior director of government relations and head of nutrition policy at the National Milk Producers Federation. …

… Erin Moriarty-Siler and Beck Havens are joining New Heights Communications. Moriarty-Siler will be director of media relations and previously was an election comms strategist for Common Cause. Havens will be director of digital and has previously done work with The Teamsters, SEIU and Power the Polls. … Ben Arcuri is now director of government relations for the National Alliance for Public Charter Schools. He previously was federal legislative director for the National Association of Home Builders.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) … Reps. Nick Langworthy (R-N.Y.) and Glenn Ivey (D-Md.) … Chelsea Clinton … Ralph Nader (9-0) … Greg Speed … Robbie Aiken … Sasha Johnson of United Airlines … Rebecca Sinderbrand … Gary Knell … David Merritt of Blue Cross Blue Shield Association … Jill Chappell Adly … Fox News’ Ashley DiMella … Julie Merz … Dan Hull … SBA’s Kate DePriest … Trevor Kolego … Mark Blumenthal … former Reps. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) and Luke Messer (R-Ind.) … Eric Lesser … Maria Koklanaris Bonaquist … POLITICO’s Kelsey Wessels and Kirsten Messmer … Adrienne Morrell … Aria Austin of Sen. John Fetterman’s (D-Pa.) office … Nils Bruzelius … Michael Smitsky of the Association for Uncrewed Vehicle Systems International … Anthony Daniels

Send Playbookers tips to [email protected] or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.

CORRECTION: An earlier version of this newsletter misspelled Erica Orden’s name.